We had two golfers in contention at the Mexico Open last week (Stephan Jaeger and Aaron Rai), but they were unable to cross the finish line atop the leaderboard.
I don't know about you, but I did not see a win coming from Brian Campbell. The likelihood of a long-shot winner is increased in weak-field birdie fests, but this came out of nowhere. Campbell finished MC, T51, and WD in his other three starts on the PGA Tour this year.
We now turn our attention to the Florida swing. We have the Cognizant Classic this week, the Arnold Palmer Invitational next week, and then we are onto THE PLAYERS Championship. It should be an incredible stretch of golf.
2025 Cognizant Classic Odds
Click arrow to expand Cognizant Classic odds via DraftKings
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Shane Lowry | +2000 |
| Sungjae Im | +2200 |
| Daniel Berger | +2500 |
| Sepp Straka | +2500 |
| Russell Henley | +2500 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +2800 |
| Min Woo Lee | +3000 |
| Kurt Kitayama | +3500 |
| Denny McCarthy | +3500 |
| Davis Thompson | +3500 |
| Keith Mitchell | +4000 |
| Byeong Hun An | +4000 |
| Ben Griffin | +4000 |
| Jordan Spieth | +4500 |
| J.J. Spaun | +4500 |
| Cameron Young | +4500 |
| Alex Smalley | +4500 |
| Luke Clanton | +5000 |
| Taylor Moore | +5000 |
| Billy Horschel | +5000 |
| Austin Eckroat | +5000 |
| Rickie Fowler | +5000 |
| Andrew Novak | +5000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +5000 |
| Michael Kim | +5000 |
| Max Greyserman | +5000 |
| Lucas Glover | +5500 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | +5500 |
| Harry Hall | +5500 |
| Gary Woodland | +5500 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +5500 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | +6000 |
| Brian Harman | +6000 |
| Seamus Power | +6000 |
| Bud Cauley | +6500 |
| Beau Hossler | +6500 |
| Niklas Norgaard | +6500 |
| Chris Kirk | +7000 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | +7500 |
| Ryan Gerard | +7500 |
| Kevin Roy | +8000 |
| Jake Knapp | +8000 |
| Eric Cole | +8000 |
| C.T. Pan | +8000 |
| Brian Campbell | +8000 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +8000 |
| Greyson Sigg | +9000 |
| Doug Ghim | +9000 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | +10000 |
| Chan Kim | +10000 |
| Ryan Fox | +10000 |
| Pierceson Coody | +10000 |
| Adam Schenk | +10000 |
| Nico Echavarria | +10000 |
| Matt Wallace | +10000 |
| Joel Dahmen | +11000 |
| Joe Highsmith | +11000 |
| Isaiah Salinda | +11000 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | +11000 |
| Sam Ryder | +11000 |
| Adam Svensson | +11000 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | +11000 |
| Matt Kuchar | +11000 |
| Mac Meissner | +11000 |
| Kris Ventura | +12000 |
| K.H. Lee | +12000 |
| Justin Lower | +12000 |
| Jesper Svensson | +12000 |
| Victor Perez | +12000 |
| Tom Hoge | +12000 |
| Chandler Phillips | +12000 |
| Ben Silverman | +12000 |
| Antoine Rozner | +12000 |
| Andrew Putnam | +12000 |
| Patrick Fishburn | +12000 |
| Max McGreevy | +12000 |
| Jackson Suber | +15000 |
| Vince Whaley | +15000 |
| Trey Mullinax | +15000 |
| Chris Gotterup | +15000 |
| Charley Hoffman | +15000 |
| Ben Martin | +15000 |
| Ben Kohles | +15000 |
| Rico Hoey | +15000 |
| Quade Cummins | +15000 |
| Alejandro Tosti | +15000 |
| Matthias Schmid | +15000 |
| Mark Hubbard | +15000 |
| Jeremy Paul | +17000 |
| Henrik Norlander | +17000 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | +17000 |
| Ricky Castillo | +17000 |
| Matteo Manassero | +17000 |
| Matt McCarty | +17000 |
| Luke List | +17000 |
| Karl Vilips | +20000 |
| Frankie Capan | +20000 |
| Zach Johnson | +20000 |
| Will Gordon | +20000 |
| Webb Simpson | +20000 |
| Thriston Lawrence | +20000 |
| Chad Ramey | +20000 |
| Carson Young | +20000 |
| Steven Fisk | +20000 |
| Brice Garnett | +20000 |
| Dylan Wu | +20000 |
| Matthieu Pavon | +20000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +25000 |
| Vincent Norrman | +25000 |
| Rijuya Hoshino | +25000 |
| Patton Kizzire | +25000 |
| Francesco Molinari | +30000 |
| William Mouw | +30000 |
| Danny Willett | +30000 |
| Paul Waring | +30000 |
| Nick Hardy | +30000 |
| Nate Lashley | +30000 |
| Harry Higgs | +35000 |
| Davis Riley | +40000 |
| David Lipsky | +40000 |
| Tim Widing | +40000 |
| Thomas Rosenmueller | +40000 |
| Taylor Montgomery | +40000 |
| Sami Valimaki | +40000 |
| David Skinns | +50000 |
| Will Chandler | +50000 |
| Camilo Villegas | +50000 |
| Brandt Snedeker | +50000 |
| Taylor Dickson | +60000 |
| Ryan Palmer | +60000 |
| Rafael Campos | +60000 |
| Peter Malnati | +60000 |
| Brendon Todd | +70000 |
| Braden Thornberry | +70000 |
| Matthew Riedel | +70000 |
| Paul Peterson | +70000 |
| Luke Donald | +100000 |
| Kevin Velo | +100000 |
| Cristobal Del Solar | +100000 |
| Patrick Sheehan | +100000 |
| Kevin Kisner | +150000 |
| Bo Hoag | +150000 |
| Justin Hicks | +200000 |
| Ben Polland | +250000 |
PGA National Course Overview
Because of complaints and its place on the schedule, the PGA Tour decided to make PGA National play a little easier last year. It ended up being the 20th most difficult course on Tour in 2024, which was much easier than the previous four years (13th, 7th, 6th, 3rd).
When it comes to Florida golf, it's all about avoiding the hazards and putting well on bermudagrass greens. There are 25 water hazards at PGA National, and water is in play on 15 of the 18 holes.
The course is a par-71 that measures 7,165 yards. The fairways are generous at 33 yards wide on average, and the greens are large (7,000 square feet). In 2024, the field hit 65% of fairways and 70% of greens.
Even though many of the holes require less than driver off the tee, driving distance has been a bigger asset here than driving accuracy (at least in past editions).
Total driving, iron play, bogey avoidance, and putting on bermudagrass are the biggest weights in my model this week. I'm also taking a hard look at experience in Florida, recent form, and success on short and moderately difficult courses.
2025 Cognizant Classic Picks
Russell Henley +2200
I've been going back and forth between Russell Henley and Sungjae Im to headline my card but ultimately decided on the former.
Henley hasn't won on the PGA Tour since 2022, but he has been in contention so many times since then. In the last 12 months alone, he's finished in the top-5 in seven events.
Historically, he plays his best on shorter courses that require accuracy off the tee. While distance plays more of a role than accuracy at PGA National, it certainly doesn't hurt hitting fairways here.
He has a tremendous track record at this course, posting two top-10 finishes in the last five years and a win in 2014. Ultimately, I trust Henley more than Im to be in the mix on the back nine on Sunday.
Keith Mitchell +4500
Keith Mitchell might be the best ball-striker in this week's field. He's top-5 in strokes gained off the tee and top-20 in strokes gained approach.
He had a bad stretch of golf in the fall but has finished T33 or better in all four of his starts in 2025. During that stretch, he has gained at least 1.9 strokes off the tee in every event.
His best putting surface is bermudagrass, and he should have some good vibes heading into this event given the fact that he won here in 2019.
If he can have a decent week with the short game, I like his chances.
Ben Griffin +4500
I bet Ben Griffin far too often considering he's never won on the PGA Tour, but it's going to feel so good when he finally does win and I have an outright on him.
He's coming off a T4 finish at the Mexico Open where he gained 8.9 strokes tee to green and 3.1 strokes putting.
If you look at his statistical profile, he's essentially elite at everything except off the tee. You can get away with average driving at a course that requires a lot of less-than-driver tee shots.
Griffin has contended at THE PLAYERS and finished T21 here in 2023, so he's no stranger to Florida golf. I love the form and the +4500 number.
Lucas Glover +6000
I was originally going to bet Billy Horschel as my long-shot of the week, but his price has cratered and his recent form isn't anything to write home about.
Meanwhile, Lucas Glover has three top-3 finishes in his last 10 starts on the PGA Tour.
Glover has always been known for his ball-striking, but he's made huge strides with his putting over the last couple of years. He has now gained strokes on the greens in seven of his last nine events.
More importantly, he's gained at least three strokes putting in four of those events. The spike weeks with the putter go a long way when it comes to winning golf tournaments.
He seems to like this course, too, as he's finished in the top 35 in each of his last three appearances at this event.
Best of luck to you. I'm manifesting a winner this week!
2025 Cognizant Classic Schedule
- Dates: Feb. 27 – March 2
- Location: PGA National Resort, Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.
- Par: 71
- Yardage: 7,167
- Purse: $9.2 million
2025 Cognizant Classic: How to Watch
- Thursday: Golf Channel (2-6 p.m. ET)
- Friday: Golf Channel (2-6 p.m. ET)
- Saturday: Golf Channel (1-3 p.m. ET); NBC/Peacock (3-6 p.m. ET)
- Sunday: Golf Channel (1-3 p.m. ET); NBC/Peacock (3-6 p.m. ET)
