It’s been a slow start to the 2025 season on the betting front. I’ve had some nice wins in DFS, but I’m still searching for my first outright win in the betting market. We’ve had a few close calls, so hopefully, we can get a break or two to go our way over the next few Sundays.
Due to the fires in Los Angeles, the PGA TOUR had to switch venues for this week's Genesis Invitational. While I love Riviera Country Club as much as the next golf fan, I’m not overly disappointed that we get another week at Torrey Pines. This is one of the most difficult courses in the world. With a field of only 72 golfers and all four rounds at the more challenging South Course, we could easily see a winning score in the single digits (which is rare these days).
Torrey Pines South Course is a Par 72 that measures nearly 7,800 yards. It features narrow fairways (28 yards wide) and small greens (5,000 square feet). To make matters worse, the rough here is extremely thick and difficult to play out of. This is a course that tests all aspects of a golfer’s game. If you have a weakness, there’s a good chance Torrey Pines is going to expose it.
Historically, driving distance has been a key factor at this golf course. It certainly makes sense, as the course is extremely long and features fairways that are tough to hit even for the most accurate drivers of the ball. Long iron play has also played a major role, as we can expect around 35% of approach shots to come from at least 200 yards. With the greens being tough to hit, scrambling will also play a major role in deciding the winner.
As you’ll see below, I’m mixing in some placement bets this week because I’m only betting on one golfer in the outright market.
The Genesis Invitational Best Bets, Picks, Odds
Scottie Scheffler to win +425 & top 3 +160
Scheffler had a rare meltdown on the back nine in Phoenix last weekend, yet he still finished the week gaining at least two strokes off the tee, on approach, and putting. Surprisingly, his around-the-green play has let him down in each of his last three events.
There’s no reason for concern—he ranks third on the PGA TOUR in strokes gained around the green over the past 18 months. Torrey Pines demands an elite tee-to-green game, and there’s nobody better than Scheffler in that regard.
The scary part? Since switching to the mallet putter, he has gained strokes putting in 15 of his last 19 events. He dominated the Signature Events in 2024, and I like his chances of doing the same here in 2025.
Jason Day top 5 +800 & Top 10 +360
When Torrey Pines was first announced as a potential venue for this event, Day was the first to express his excitement—he absolutely loves this place. Since 2013, he has played the Farmers Insurance Open 13 times, racking up two wins and five other top-10 finishes.
Just a few weeks ago, he finished T32 here in a full field despite losing six strokes putting. He’s the type of golfer you need to watch closely when his iron play starts trending up—and right now, it is.
Over his last four events combined, he has gained more than 10 strokes on approach. In a limited field and at a course he thrives on, these odds for Day are awfully enticing.
Adam Scott top 5 +1200 (DraftKings) & top 10 +500 (FanDuel)
Scott is another veteran I’m backing this week. He thrives on difficult courses and against strong fields, likely because his game has no real weaknesses.
He still has plenty of distance off the tee, remains an excellent iron player, and has quietly become one of the best short-game specialists on TOUR in recent years. His track record in California is stellar, and he has finished T10 and T2 in his last two starts at Torrey Pines.
With his game trending in the right direction and only 71 other golfers in the field, I love his top 5 and top 10 odds this week.
Good luck everyone!
