After the second week at Torrey Pines in nearly a month, the PGA Tour heads to Vallarta for the Mexico Open. We have yet to hit a winner this season, but that's the nature of the game in golf betting, especially in the outright market.
This is the weakest field we have seen in quite some time, which opens the door for a long-shot winner. The favorite this week is Akshay Bhatia at +1400, which is a far cry from when Scottie Scheffler is in the field and listed as +300.
We only have three years of course history and data to work with at Vidanta Vallarta, but we know the course favors bombers. The fairways are wide and the course is long (it's a par-71 that measures 7,436 yards). Mid- and long-iron play is also critical, as 79% of approach shots came from at least 150 yards in here in 2024.
In general, the easier the course, the more important putting becomes. When everyone is hitting fairways and greens, it often comes down to who can make the most putts. With little to no wind in the forecast this week, we can expect very good scoring conditions. I'm bumping up putting in my model.
I'm keeping it simple this week. I'm looking for bombers, good, long iron players, good putters, birdie makers, golfers who have performed well on paspalum courses, golfers who have performed well on driver-heavy courses, and golfers who have performed well on easy courses.
2025 Mexico Open at Vidanta Picks, Bets, Outright Winner Predictions
Stephan Jaeger +2800
Stephan Jaeger didn't get the nickname "Jaeger Bomb" by being short off the tee (I'm also not sure if that's his actual nickname or what we just call him in the betting world). He's top 20 in this field in driving distance, strokes gained around the green, and birdie or better percentage.
He picked up his first PGA Tour win last spring at another driver-heavy course in Texas. He's played this event all three years and has finishes of T3, T18, and T15.
He's finished in the top 3 in two of his last seven starts on Tour and gained 4.2 strokes tee to green in a stacked field at Torrey Pines last week.
Aaron Rai +3300
Aaron Rai is the only non-bomber on my betting card this week. Even with driving distance heavily weighted in my model, he still rates out as the sixth best golfer in the field.
He's arguably the best iron player in the field, especially when it comes to mid and long irons. He's excellent around the green and has become an above-average putter over the last 12 months.
Like Jaeger, he's played this event all three years and has two top 25 finishers here. I know his ball striking has cooled off to start the year, but this is by far the weakest field that he's played in so far.
Beau Hossler +3500
Beau Hossler grades out as the second best golfer in the field in my model this week. He has plenty of distance off the tee, he makes a ton of birdies, and he might have the best short game of anyone in the field (top-6 in both strokes gained around the green and putting).
He's still searching for that elusive first win, but he's eventually going to break through if he keeps giving himself chances. In his career, he has four runner-up finishes and eight total top-5 finishes.
In his only appearance at this course, he finished T10 in 2023.
Carson Young +7500
Carson Young is a golfer who I target at very specific golf courses — they have to be driver-heavy and they have to feature easy-to-hit greens.
From a ball-striking standpoint, he's much better than you might expect when you look at his OWGR. And believe it or not, he's actually an above-average putter.
His biggest weakness is around the green. He finished the 2024 season ranked 170th in that category. When you get him on courses where he doesn't have to chip much, he tends to shine.
I like his chances on a course where he's finished T8 and T15 the last two years.
As always, best of luck this week.
