While our bets were never really in contention at The Sentry last week, both Sungjae Im and Ludvig Aberg finished in the top 5.
Betting on golf outrights is always a binary result. Your golfer either win the tournament, or they don't. However, I like when my bets finish near the top of the leaderboard. It makes me feel like we are on the right track. We stay in Hawaii this week for the Sony Open.
While there's not a ton of distance between these courses, they are extremely different tests of golf. Last week's course was a par-73 with wide-open fairways, while Waialae Country Club is a par-70 that measures only 7,044 yards.
This is much more of a technical track than what we saw last week. While it will still play on the easier side of things, we shouldn't expect the winning score to be 35-under par again.
The fairways at Waialae are 36 yards wide on average. The greens here are 7,100 square feet on average. While these are still large greens, they are significantly smaller than the ones we saw last week at Kapalua. The field hit these greens at a 69% clip in 2024. Around-the-green play will be a little more important than it was last week, when the field was hitting greens at an 80% clip.
Historically, shorter and more accurate hitters have had a ton of success at this course. However, we've seen the need for driving accuracy dissipate over the last handful of years. The penalty for missing fairways here is small, and golfers have opted for a more aggressive approach off the tee (this is becoming a recurring theme at all venues on the PGA Tour). Nearly 70% of approach shots at this course last year were hit from 125 to 200 yards.
Here's what I am looking for this week:
- Good course history
- Good iron players
- Good bermudagrass putters
- Preferably played at Kapalua last week
Let's find a winner. Here are my outright bets for the Sony Open.
2025 Sony Open Predictions
Russell Henley +2200 (bet365)
I seem to bet Henley at the same courses every year, and they all tend to be short par-70 tracks where he's had an elite track record. He won here in 2013 and has finished in the top 5 here in two of the last three years.
His number this week is drifting because he finished T30 last week, but the courses are extremely different and he never seems to play well at Kapalua.
This week's course sets up much better for his game. He's accurate off the tee, an elite iron player, and he can catch fire with his putter (he's gained at least 5.5 strokes putting in three of his last 14 events).
I like his chances of being in the mix on Sunday and love the +2200 number.
Taylor Pendrith +4000 (bet365)
How about that albatross for Pendrith on Sunday? I struggle to make five-foot putts, and he's out here holing out from 200 yards.
While Pendrith is more of a bomber, he has a surprisingly strong record on shorter courses. He finished 10th here last year while losing strokes off the tee (usually a weapon for him).
He's coming off a career year on the PGA Tour. He picked up his first win and is currently riding a 12-event made-cut streak (nine top 25s during that stretch).
He's elite on approach and an elite putter. That combination has worked wonders at this event over the years.
Ben Griffin +5000 (FanDuel)
Griffin is the only golfer on my outright card who didn't tee it up last week at Kapalua.
While rust is a concern for a lot of the field, he played as much as anyone during the fall. Since the start of October, he's played in seven events and has finished in the top 25 in five of them.
Much like Henley, he tends to be a short-course specialist. He doesn't have the length needed to contend on the longer tracks, so he makes his mark on the technical courses.
He's one of the best in the field if you look at strokes gained on approach, around the green, and putting. In his two appearances here, he's finished T30 and T12.
Good luck this week!
