Editor's Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, a provider of data-driven picks and tools that have helped pool players win at more than three times the expected rate.
The Players Championship is here, bringing the largest prize pool of the PGA season. Often considered the unofficial "fifth major," this tournament at TPC Sawgrass offers a massive $25 million purse, with $4.5 million going to the winner.
With such high stakes, this event represents the most critical week for Golf One and Done pools. The challenge? Balancing elite player value this week against saving top names for future tournaments.
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Best Odds to Win The Players Championship
Here are the favorites to win this tournament based on betting odds as of Tuesday, March 11:
- Scottie Scheffler (+500)
- Rory McIlroy (+1100)
- Collin Morikawa (+1200)
- Ludvig Aberg (+1600)
- Xander Schauffele (+2200)
- Justin Thomas (+2200)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2800)
- Russell Henley (+2800)
What does this mean for your Players Championship One and Done picks?
The odds heavily favor Scheffler, who is looking to make history with a third straight Players Championship victory. Only Jack Nicklaus has won this event more than twice in its history.
However, betting odds alone don't tell the whole story—OAD strategy requires considering future tournament value and how each pick fits into your season-long plan.
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Most Popular Players Championship One & Done Picks
At PoolGenius, we have insights into pick popularity each week. Here's who is expected to be the most popular Players Championship One and Done picks:
Very High Popularity (15%+)
- Scottie Scheffler
High Popularity (8-14%)
- Collin Morikawa
- Ludvig Aberg
- Hideki Matsuyama
Medium Popularity (4-7%)
- Rory McIlroy
- Sepp Straka
- Wyndham Clark
Lower Popularity (1-3%)
- Xander Schauffele
- Justin Thomas
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Patrick Cantlay
- Russell Henley
It's safe to say Scheffler is this week's chalk pick. That makes sense, as he's the two-time defending champion and has an excellent course history at TPC Sawgrass.
Morikawa's popularity surged after his second-place finish last week, while Aberg and Matsuyama continue to attract significant attention.
The true contrarian options include Schauffele, Thomas, and Fleetwood — all golfers with strong betting odds but relatively low ownership projections. Henley, after his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, could be another interesting leverage play.
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Best Players Championship One and Done Picks This Week
This is the single most critical week for Golf One and Done Picks because of the highest first-place prize of the season. There are two main strategies to consider:
1. Go With a Top-Tier Favorite
Many pool players will take Scheffler, McIlroy, or Morikawa – for good reason. These are the safest plays if you want to secure a high finish at the most valuable tournament of the year. However, your pool size and current standings should dictate your risk tolerance away from these golfers.
2. Find a Leverage Play
If you're trailing in your pool, taking a slightly less popular golfer (like Schauffele, Thomas, or Fleetwood) could provide upside while potentially saving Scheffler or McIlroy for a major. If you are looking to make up ground with an underrated pick, Russell Henley (fresh off his win) or Sepp Straka could be worth a look from a risk/reward standpoint.
Remember that the best Players Championship One and Done pick depends on your pool settings, remaining golfer inventory, and whether you are playing for segment prizes or season-long value.
Optimize Your Golf One & Done Picks with PoolGenius
The key to long-term success in One & Done pools is picking the right golfers at the right time. Instead of making a blind guess, use the PoolGenius Golf OAD Picks Tool to:
- Customize Weekly Picks based on your pool's format
- Plan Your Full Season with optimal golfer usage
- See Golfer Grades to compare win potential vs. future value
- Optimize Multi-Entry Pools with diversified pick strategies
Whether you are near the top of your standings or looking to make ground, PoolGenius helps you make data-driven decisions to get an edge.
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Gain a competitive advantage in your One & Done pool with data-driven picks, season-long strategy, and expert insights tailored to your specific pool format.
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