The "People's Open" returns to TPC Scottsdale this week with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler seeking his third title in four years.
But does he make for a strong WM Phoenix Open One and Done pick this week? Or are you better off saving him for tournaments with a higher purse? We’ll cover that and more in the sections below.
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Field Overview & Tournament Format
Before diving into the WM Phoenix Open One and Done picks, let’s take a look at the overall field and tournament details:
- 132-player field with standard cut format
- $9.2 million purse with $1,656,000 to the winner
- Notable mix of elite players and strong course history specialists
- Traditional 72-hole stroke play at TPC Scottsdale
Scheffler’s Tournament To Lose?
Scheffler, who has three-straight finishes of third place or better in the Phoenix Open, headlines the event. He enters as the overwhelming +275 favorite to win. Scheffler has been dominant here, posting ten consecutive rounds of 68 or better on this course.
Beyond him, the field boasts several players with strong form and course history, making for an exciting showdown in the desert.
Most Popular WM Phoenix Open One and Done Picks
The current projections show several tiers of popularity. Most notably, Scheffler is considered an unpopular selection this week. We’ll explain that shortly. Here’s the full list:
High Popularity (8-14%):
- Justin Thomas
- Sam Burns
- Tom Kim
- Nick Taylor
- Sahith Theegala
Medium Popularity (4-7%):
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Sepp Straka
- Billy Horschel
The Scheffler Strategy Question
Despite dominant course history and being a heavy favorite, Scheffler's relatively low ownership creates an interesting strategic decision. His potential $1.65M winner's payout must be weighed against saving him for signature events offering over $3M to winners.
The timing between two signature events also impacts strategy – many top players are worth saving for bigger purses ahead.
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Who Is the Best Golf One And Done Pick This Week?
For your WM Phoenix Open One and Done picks, Justin Thomas is an appealing play with the second-best odds (+1200). While top-ranked players like Matsuyama, Burns, and I have strong chances, their value in upcoming Signature Events makes them worth saving for larger purses.
This creates an opportunity to target players like Tom Kim, Sahith Theegala, Sepp Straka, and Billy Horschel. Though these options will likely be somewhat popular, we aren’t too worried about that in a non-signature event. The focus should be maximizing results while preserving elite players for premium purses.
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