Editor's Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, a provider of data-driven picks and tools that have helped pool players win at more than three times the expected rate.
The Masters Tournament tees off Thursday, and whether you're in a casual pool with friends or competing in a high-stakes league with a big payout on the line, now’s the time to finalize your Masters picks.
But picking the right golfers isn’t just about studying odds, recent form, or course history — it takes smart strategy based on your pool’s size, scoring format, and pick popularity.
Masters Picks, Sleepers, and Tier-Based Values
The picks that follow are based on a common 8-tier pool format. You select one golfer per tier, and scoring is based on finishing position against a field of 100 entries.
Your tiers may look different — and your strategy should shift based on scoring, pool size, and format. For help with that, check out our complete Masters strategy guide.
Or skip the guesswork entirely and use the PoolGenius Masters & Majors Picks product — which is built to optimize picks for your exact pool setup. Here’s how it works:
- Import your exact pool rules, tiers, and scoring system
- Get pick popularity from major pool hosting sites to make smarter decisions
- Build a cheat sheet tailored to your pool’s format, showing where to play it safe and when to go contrarian
The following Masters picks play into that same strategy — and offer a glimpse of what the data can reveal.
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Masters Picks: Tier 1 – Scheffler, McIlroy, or Neither?
These are the top-tier names in most Masters pools — big reputations, short odds, and plenty of attention. Here's how to approach this group depending on your pool size and risk tolerance.
Golfers in this tier include: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, and Patrick Cantlay.
Play It Safe: Chalk Worth Taking
Scottie Scheffler (60% pick rate)
If you're in a smaller pool (under 50 people), Scheffler is the clear favorite for good reason. His form has been exceptional, and you don't need to get particularly contrarian in smaller fields. The math simply doesn't require you to differentiate significantly when you only need to beat 40–50 other entries.
Rory McIlroy (25% pick rate)
McIlroy represents a slightly more contrarian but still safe option in smaller pools. He is always a threat at Augusta, and his lower ownership gives you slight differentiation without adding much risk.
High-Upside Leverage Play
Xander Schauffele (3% pick rate)
Some may have forgotten that Xander Schauffele won two majors last year, overshadowed by Scheffler’s historic season. After a slow start to this year due to injury, Schauffele enters this week offering a rare combination of reliability and differentiation.
His consistently solid performances at Augusta (four top-10 finishes) combined with his surprisingly low pick percentage make him an excellent play in medium-sized pools of 50–100 entries where you need some separation but can't afford a complete miss.
Masters Picks: Tier 2 – Koepka, Lowry, or Spieth?
This group is a step below Tier 1 in overall strength, but that also means more room to find leverage. If you're avoiding risky pivots up top, Tier 2 becomes a great place to differentiate without taking on too much downside.
Golfers in this tier include: Brooks Koepka, Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann, Russell Henley, Robert MacIntyre, Viktor Hovland, Minwoo Lee, Jordan Spieth, and Tyrrell Hatton.
Play It Safe: Chalk Worth Taking
Brooks Koepka (19% pick rate)
Koepka is one of the most picked golfers in Tier 2, and it’s easy to see why. He has strong odds, a proven major championship pedigree, and feels like a safe mid-tier anchor. While he’s a chalkier option, his floor is high, making him a smart pick in more conservative builds.
Shane Lowry (12% pick rate)
Lowry comes just behind Koepka in popularity but brings solid form and Augusta history. He is a strong complementary piece if you’re anchoring your lineup with Scheffler or McIlroy and want to stay safe here.
High-Upside Leverage Play
Jordan Spieth (8% pick rate)
Spieth is being picked less than 10% of the time, despite having a 9% chance to win this tier based on betting markets. He had a 12th-place finish last week and top-5 finishes in two of the last four Masters. His course history and ceiling make him one of the best boom-or-bust plays in this tier.
Masters Picks: Tier 3 – Conners, Smith, or Value Sleeper?
By the time you get to Tier 3, volatility increases — but so does the opportunity for differentiation. Two players stand out based on form, metrics, and popularity, while one sneaky sleeper offers upside in larger pools.
Golfers in this tier include: Corey Conners, Cameron Smith, Will Zalatoris, Sepp Straka, Akshay Bhatia, Dustin Johnson, Sergio Garcia, Jason Day, Wyndham Clark, and Patrick Reed.
Play It Safe: Chalk Worth Taking
Corey Conners (18% pick rate)
Conners is the top-ranked golfer in this tier based on betting odds, strokes gained metrics, and recent form. His elite ball-striking makes him one of the safest plays in a volatile group, which explains why he's the most picked Tier 3 golfer. He is a strong choice for smaller or conservative builds.
Cameron Smith (15% pick rate)
Smith is right behind Conners in both popularity and performance outlook. He’s tied with Conners at +4000 odds and has top-10 finishes at Augusta in three of the last four years, including a win in 2022. His short game thrives on Augusta’s tricky greens, making him another solid, stable option.
High-Upside Leverage Play
Will Zalatoris (8% pick rate)
Zalatoris brings a boom-or-bust element perfect for large pools. He’s finished top 10 in three of the last four Masters (including 9th last year) and has a proven track record at Augusta. His course history and ownership percentage make him a strong leverage play, but he carries more risk (in current form) than Conners or Smith.
In smaller pools or formats that penalize bad finishes, you may want to play it safer.
Get Optimized Masters Picks for Your Exact Pool Setup
After three tiers of strategy and Masters pick breakdowns, it’s clear: the smartest Masters entries don’t rely on guesswork. It doesn’t have to be complicated, either.
Just check out the PoolGenius Masters & Majors Picks product. You can enter your exact pool format — whether that’s tier-based or picking a set number of golfers from the field — along with scoring rules and number of entries.
PoolGenius will instantly generate a cheat sheet tailored to your setup, showing you the best value picks, when to play it safe, and where to find leverage.
Best of all, it includes pick popularity data from major pool hosting sites, giving you a major edge over your competition.
GET EXPERT MASTERS POOL PICKS
P.S. – PoolGenius also includes a Golf One-and-Done Picks Optimizer if that’s your contest format.
