In this crowded API field, it's very hard to nail down the winner. We still gave you a ton of information on the course, players, stats, and more to improve your chances, but long-shot future bets aren't for everyone, so let's dive into a few head-to-head props and use our FantasyLabs metrics to pick the best bets:
- Alex Noren vs. Henrik Stenson
- Kiradech Aphibarnrat vs. Brandt Snedeker
- Tommy Fleetwood vs. Rickie Fowler
Alex Noren (-110) over Henrik Stenson
This is really my way of shorting Stenson, although that could seem quite foolish come the weekend. The good with Henrik: He's maybe the best ball-striker in the world when on, and he has excellent top-end history at Bay Hill.
The bad: The missed cut last year could be excused if there were no other warts on his resume, but that isn't the case. Stenson has missed each of his past two cuts, with one coming at a very low-end tournament on the Asian Tour. He shot 74 on Thursday and Friday last week at the Valspar to miss the number, and he just hasn't put himself in birdie opportunities of late, which is critical at this course. Noren, meanwhile, has been in the top 25 in each of his past five events, including two top-five finishes.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (-115) over Brandt Snedeker
This is just another fade of Snedeker, who I don't think fits Bay Hill very well. Taking advantage of birdie and eagle opportunities on the Par 5s is incredibly important, and Sneds is merely middle of the pack with an average of -3.6 adjusted strokes on Par 5s over the past 75 weeks. Aphibarnrat isn't a household name, but he's finished sixth each of the past two years (his only events here at Bay Hill), and he hasn't missed a cut since last September. He does well on Par 5s, evidenced by his -4.5 average adjusted strokes.
Tommy Fleetwood (-110) vs. Rickie Fowler
Rickie has really struggled of late, finishing 37th at the WGC-Mexico and missing two of three cuts prior to that. His driving distance is down, and he's really struggled with the short stick; both of those are signals to me that he's in his head, both with the driver and putter. That just simply won't play at Bay Hill. Fleetwood, on the other hand, is playing terrifically right now and has a top 10 in his only appearance here. He's tied for first in the field in Long-Term Eagle Score, which shows that he can tear up this course if he's on. Rickie is somehow at -120 favorite in this matchup.
Photo credit Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
