Writing these introductions is always a little easier coming off of a winner. Wyndham Clark took down the Wells Fargo Championship, and we had him at a very juicy +7500 last week. Hopefully, some of you were able to tail the play. We will look to keep it going this week at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
TPC Craig Ranch has held this event each of the last two seasons, and it has been one of the five easiest courses on the PGA Tour during that stretch. The fairways here are rather wide (36.4 yards on average) and easy to hit. The greens here are rather large (6,900 square feet on average) and also are easy to hit. If golfers do miss the green, scrambling is pretty straightforward.
Most around the industry are calling this one of the most bland courses on the PGA Tour, and while I would like to disagree, there's not much that really stands out. They did change the 12th hole from a par-5 to a par-4 on the scorecard, but that will only impact the scoring. This will still be a birdie-fest, as K.H. Lee has won here the last two years with scores of -25 and -26.
While the wide fairways set up well for the bombers, distance isn't a prerequisite for success here. In fact, we've seen a number of shorter hitters toward the top of the last two leaderboards here. Essentially, golfers need to make birdies in bunches and make putts. When a course isn't super demanding from tee to green, it often becomes a putting contest.
In terms of the betting board, it's essentially Scottie Scheffler and then everyone else. He's currently +350 at most sportsbooks, and while it wouldn't surprise me to see him run away with another win, there's not a lot of value in that number. My hope is that he doesn't make enough putts to win in a true birdie-fest, but he's talented enough to win in this field with his B-game.
Here are a few of my favorite bets for the week.
AT&T Byron Nelson Outright Picks
Tom Kim +1700 (FanDuel)
Tom Kim's number has cratered throughout the week, largely because Jordan Spieth withdrew. While +2500 would be more enticing, I still see value in the +1700 on FanDuel. After a blazing start to his PGA Tour career, he has struggled a bit this year. I chalk this up to a combination of tougher courses and stronger fields. If you look at his per-round data on easy courses over the last two seasons, nobody in this field is better than Kim. He doesn't have course history at many venues, but he did finish T17 here last year. He also comes into the week fresh off a T23 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship where he gained 9.0 strokes from tee to green. The easier field and course should be right up Kim's alley.
Pick: Tom Kim +1700 |
Seamus Power +4500 (BetRivers)
I like Seamus Power for a lot of the same reasons that I like Kim this week. He's coming off of a T18 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship where he gained strokes in all four facets of the game (off the tee, on approach, around the green and putting). He seems to shine on easier courses, as he's second in this field in strokes gained per round in birdie-fests over the last two seasons. And much like Kim, he has an impressive track record at TPC Craig Ranch. He's played here twice and has finished T17 and T9. He's one of those golfers who does everything well and can catch fire on the greens on the right week.
Pick: Seamus Power +4500 |
Sam Stevens +7500 (FanDuel)
Sam Stevens is my favorite long-shot bet of the week. The fact that he's +7500 could bode well, as that's the number we hit on Clark last week. Stevens is one of the longest hitters in the field and is quietly top 20 in strokes gained approach over the last year. He didn't have the best finishes in his last two starts, but they were both in designated events where he gained strokes ball striking in both of them. Prior to that, he finished second at the Valero Texas Open and third at the Corales Puntacana Championship. He's never played this event, but he should find the course to his liking. His best putting splits by far are on bentgrass greens like the ones featured at this course.
Pick: Sam Stevens +7500 |
Thanks for reading. Let's have a week.
