2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Picks, Predictions and Odds: Collin Morikawa, Sam Burns, Adam Scott

Another week, another top-five finish from our picks. Sam Stevens finished in second after an incredible Sunday round at Torrey Pines. All we needed was a single bogey from Harris English to get into a playoff, but he made some clutch up and downs on the back nine. I hope if you bet Stevens, you took my advice and added a top-five or top-10 bet. We go from one iconic course to another in Pebble Beach. The format of this event changed last year with this being elevated to a Signature Event. Rather than having a full field with a cut and a three-course rotation, we now have a limited field (80 golfers) with no cut and a two-course rotation. While I usually don't love the events with more than one course, I am all in this week. The PGA TOUR announced there will be Shot Tracker available for both Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill (first time ever). Since three of the four rounds will be played at Pebble Beach Golf Links, we'll focus most of our attention on that course. It's a Par 72 that measures 6,972 yards. The fairways here are fairly wide on average, but this is not a bomber-friendly course. There are many forced lay-ups, which is why the average driving distance at this event last year was only 277 yards (TOUR average is 293 yards). The greens at Pebble Beach are the smallest on the PGA TOUR. They are 3,500 square feet on average and feature poa annua grass. As mentioned last week, poa annua is certainly an acquired taste that very few golfers prefer because they are slow and bumpy. Spyglass Hill also has poa annua greens, so looking at those putting splits isn't the worst when narrowing down your potential bets this week. The fairways and greens were both easy to hit in regulation last year. With this being a stacked field, we can expect the winning score to be somewhere around 20-under par with little to no wind in the forecast. I'm looking for good wedge players, good scramblers, good poa annua putters, and golfers who play well on short courses.

2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Picks, Predictions and Odds

Collin Morikawa +1400 (FanDuel) It's hard to envision a better course for Morikawa, and with Scottie Scheffler just returning to action after missing time with a hand injury, I think there's tremendous value on this +1400 number. Morikawa is accurate off the tee, he's one of the best iron players in the game, and he's made great strides with his short game in the last 12 months. During that stretch, he's 12th in strokes gained around the green and 10th in strokes gained putting on poa annua greens. In his debut here last year, he finished T14. We certainly don't have to worry about incoming form, as he's finished 4th or better in 6 of his last 12 starts. Sam Burns +4000 (bet365) I usually like to bet Burns during the Florida swing because he's such an elite putter on bermudagrass greens, but he quietly has an excellent track record in California. He's played well here (T10 last year), he's contended at Riviera, and he has some good finishes at Torrey Pines. When you look at his statistics, he's elite on and around the greens, which is required here at Pebble Beach. He's a little more inconsistent with his ball striking, but he's capable of gaining 5+ strokes off the tee and on approach in any event. He's not going to shy away if in contention, and I love the +4000 number. Adam Scott +7500 (Caesars) Scott is my favorite long-shot of the week. We nearly got there with Stevens last week, so hopefully Scott can provide a similar performance this week. He tends to play his best golf on classical courses, and Pebble Beach certainly qualifies as a classical course. Like Burns, he's elite on and around the greens. The ball striking can be hit or miss, but he's certainly capable of having a week where he gets red-hot with his wedges. He's finished T4 or better in three of his past six PGA Tour starts.