Black Desert Resort is a Par 71 that measures 7,341 yards. Tom Weiskopf designed this course, which has one of the most aesthetically pleasing layouts we'll see until we get to Augusta National. The fairways and greens are lush, the course was built on top of a lava field and the background features red rock. If you haven't seen pictures or videos of the course, you'll be in for a treat if you watch the coverage this week.
As is the case with any new course, we don't know what type of golfer Black Desert is going to favor. The fairways are fairly generous, especially on some of the holes. With that said, very few balls that find the lava rock will be playable, so keeping the ball on the short grass should be a major advantage. The greens are quite large (7,000 square feet) and feature undulations. I would venture a guess that both the greens in regulation rate and the three-putt rate will be higher than the TOUR average.
There's a chance the field will be able to hit the fairways and greens at a high rate. If that happens, this could turn into a putting contest. However, strong tee-to-green play is more repeatable and translates to all golf courses. For my bets this week, I am looking at golfers who are good drivers and elite iron players.
Here are my four Black Desert Championship predictions and outright picks:
Seamus Power +2500 (FanDuel)
Power has been on the PGA TOUR for many years. He has struggled with consistency throughout his career, but has always been a streaky golfer. When he won the Butterfield Bermuda Championship in 2022, he followed it up with back-to-back top-five finishes at the RSM Classic and World Wide Technology Championship. I point that out because he has been playing some of his best golf in years. He's finished in the top 30 in four of his past seven starts and has gained at least one stroke off the tee in every event during that stretch. He has a good short game, is capable of catching fire with his irons and has shown an ability to have spike weeks on the greens.
Chan Kim +3500 (Caesars)
I put together a model each week that takes into account a bunch of different factors. Kim has the third-highest rating of anyone in the field. Over the past six months, he's top 10 in this field in total driving, Strokes Gained: Approach, greens in regulation, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance. The only weakness has been the putter, but even poor putters have positive weeks on the greens every now and then. Kim has finished T12 or better in three of his past six starts, so the incoming form is solid. I think he has the game to win one of these weaker-field events.
Mac Meissner +4000 (DraftKings)
My model loves Meissner this week. Much like Kim, Meissner is 15th or better in this field in total driving, Strokes Gained: Approach, greens in regulation, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and bogey avoidance over the past six months. A lot of the new golfers on the PGA TOUR are often at a disadvantage when it comes to course knowledge, but that's not the case this week. Everyone will be seeing the course for the first time (at least in a tournament setting).
Henrik Norlander +9000 (FanDuel)
I could certainly see a long-shot winner this week. My favorite of the bunch is Norlander, a veteran who has quietly been playing some solid golf. He's finished T12 or better in three of his past seven starts and if you like Strokes Gained data, you'll see that Norlander is top 10 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the past three, six and 12 months. He's also a strong driver and one of the best at avoiding bogeys. If he can find a good week with the putter, he could find himself in the mix on Sunday.
The must-have app for golf bettors
The best golf betting scoreboard
Free picks from proven pros
Live win probabilities for your bets
