The 2020 FedEx Cup Playoffs continue this week with the 2020 BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia, Ill.
Dustin Johnson, fresh off his 30-under performance at The Northern Trust, is the clear betting favorite at +800 but there is some serious firepower in this field. Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Daniel Berger and Rory McIlroy are all between +1000 and +2000.
Here are our favorite outright bets, sleeper picks, props and matchups for the 2020 BMW Championship:
Outright Bets
Jason Sobel
Jon Rahm (+1000, $10 bet wins $100)
A final-round 65 moved Rahm into a share of sixth place at The Northern Trust this past weekend, but it’s another number which should have our interest piqued: During that round, he picked up 2.79 strokes on the field from tee-to-green, a Sunday ball-striking performance we hadn’t witnessed from him since the Workday Charity Open, which he immediately parlayed into a victory at the Memorial Tournament one week later.
Based on history and sheer numbers, it’s tough to believe we won’t again see one of the game’s elite players claim this title. If you believe DJ will keep racking up birdies and eagles, I won’t talk you out of it. If you think it’ll be JT, I can see it. If you prefer Rory or Collin, you might be right.
But if I’ve gotta pick one of the game’s best, I’m taking the guy whose game once again looks to be peaking entering a tough tourney in the Midwest.
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Josh Perry
Daniel Berger (+2000)
It’s hard to find anyone who’s been more consistent each week this year than Berger. Since bouncing back from injury, he’s taken another step and has shown he’s capable of contending every time he plays, including in these deep fields.
Form tends to carry over in the playoffs and with many of the top guys, like Rory McIlroy, still searching for their A-game, this is a great spot for a guy like Berger to grab his biggest win to date.
Collin Wilson
Viktor Hovland (+4000)
Olympia Fields Country Club has not hosted a PGA TOUR event since the 2003 U.S. Open, so we can throw course history out the window.
While ball-striking has reigned supreme over the past couple of weeks, I am taking a different approach at the BMW Championship. This is a long course, so what sticks out to me is Hovland's off-the-tee prowess and his improving approach numbers from 175 yards or more.
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Matthew Vincenzi
Adam Scott (+4500)
Adam Scott is playing in his third straight event and seems to have shaken the rust off gaining 1.4 strokes Tee to Green and 2.1 on Approach at The Northern Trust.
Scott has a long track record of playing his best golf on long classical tracks (Riviera, Firestone, Muirfield Village, Augusta National) and Olympia Fields should be an excellent fit.
Having won a major championship victory (2013 Masters), Players Championship (2004), and a TOUR Championship (2006), Scott is no stranger to the big stage. He also had a strong showing in the FedEx Cup Playoffs last year finishing 5th, 9th, and 6th in the three events.
The 11th-ranked player in the world has plenty of win equity (14 PGA Tour wins) and is far too long of a price this week. When Scott is at the top of his game he can compete with the elite players on tour.
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Longshots
Jason Sobel
Adam Long +15000 ($10 bet wins $1,500)
Getting into the BMW is a nice benefit for the 70 players who have fared well enough over the course of the season to advance this far.
Getting into the TOUR Championship, though, can be life-changing for certain players who will qualify for each of next year’s four majors, the Sentry Tournament of Champions and be able to set their schedule however they’d like. Each year, there are a few surprises in the field at East Lake and this year won’t be any different.
At 27th in the standings entering this week, Long has an inside track on making this happen – and it potentially couldn’t come at a better place for a guy who grew up in the Midwest and should’ve had this one circled on his calendar for a while.
No, I wouldn’t bet the house on him outright this week, but he could be a useful play in top-10/20 props and for DFS lineups.
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Josh Perry
Russell Henley (+8000)
Henley has been consistently gaining strokes with his approach over the past few weeks and he's starting to contend a bit now that his putting has come around.
I don’t know if he can win outright in a field this deep, but another top-10 finish could definitely be in play.
Collin Wilson
Jason Kokrak (+10000)
After a nasty bout of missed cuts and a withdraw at The Memorial, Kokrak has returned to form with a couple of top-15 finishes in his last two starts. The Xavier University alumni gained 7.8 strokes Tee to Green at the Northern Trust so I'm buying into his resurgence.
Kokrak is long off the tee and finished second in Greens in Regulation (GIR) from 200+ yards out in 2018 and 2019, so he has the tools to play well at a long course like Olympia Fields.
Kokrak is also on the outside looking in for a spot in the TOUR Championship, so I expect him to be motivated this week.
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Matthew Vincenzi
Cameron Smith (+11000)
At the Northern Trust, Cameron Smith had his best ball-striking week since the 2017 Wyndham Championship.
The Aussie gained 7.4 strokes tee to green and 6.5 strokes on approach. Coming in at 26th in the FedEx Cup standings, Cam will be motivated to have a good finish this week to cash his ticket to East Lake.
Smith has had some good finishes on difficult golf courses in the past: In 2020 he won the Sony Open in Hawaii with a finishing score of -11, and finished tied 4th at the 2015 U.S. Open. He has also had some recent FedEx Cup Playoff success while making it to East Lake in 2018.
Winning the BMW Championship would be a tall task but I expect the 52nd ranked player in the world to have a strong showing at Olympia Fields.
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Prop Bets
Jason Sobel
Alex Noren Top-20 Finish (+175)
Entering a week when the course is largely a great unknown for most competitors and any of the elite-level guys in the field can win, top-20 props on those who are listed a notch below might be the best way to go.
With only 70 players in the field, these plays will only have to beat about 72 percent of the field, which isn’t asking too much. I like Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, Jason Kokrak and Cameron Smith here, but my favorite of the bunch is Noren.
One of the biggest movers on the FedEx Cup points list last week, Noren climbed from 78th to 47th and now has the Tour Championship within his grasp after what was a mediocre year for a player of his caliber until very recently.
In fact, in his first 10 starts – all in PGA TOUR-sanctioned events – the former top-10 player had zero top-10 results, but he’s compiled three in his last four, with plenty to play for this week.
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Josh Perry
Tony Finau Top-20 Finish (+140)
This is my go-to play when I expect tough conditions because we know Finau’s ball-striking will usually rank near the top of the field each week.
Finau did miss the cut at TPC Boston but it was largely due to his short game. In a smaller field, I like getting plus money on a player who consistently finds his way into contention.
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Collin Wilson
Byeong-Hun An (+335) to be Top Asian
This prop is a tournament-long 3-ball between An, Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama. Im and Matsuyama are all but guaranteed to make it into the TOUR Championship, but it's a different story for An, who sits 35th and needs a good showing to crack the top-30.
An missed the cut at TPC Boston but he finished 12th and 22nd at the St. Jude and PGA Championship, so even though he's been inconsistent he's worth a play at these odds.
Im lost -3.4 strokes Tee to Green at TPC Boston and Matsuyama's performance was buoyed by unsustainable putting.
There's a lot of variance among these three so I'll take a shot with Benny An.
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Matthew Vincenzi
Jason Day Top-10 Finish (+275)
There is no denying that Day was horrific last week after being a popular pick to win. The damage was done on his approaches (-6.5 SG:APP) as he really struggled with his iron shots.
In Day’s past four tournaments prior to The Northern Trust, he was immaculate Tee to Green (+9.6,+7.0,+6.2,+6.2 SG:T2G) and also gained on Approach in each of those tournaments.
Golfers have bad rounds and last week may have just been an outlier for J-Day. With a strong sample size of sharp recent form, Day is a good bet to bounce back this week and get into contention.
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Matchup Bets
Jason Sobel
Adam Scott (-110) over Paul Casey
As we all know (or should know), betting is often as much about figuring out whom you don’t like as whom you do like. When I started going through the board this week, I couldn’t find a fade anywhere near the top; just about everyone 50/1 or better is either riding a heater or their price has ballooned to the point where they’re a more attractive play.
I don’t hate Casey this week, but he’s the closest thing I could find to a fade, with that PGA Championship runner-up his lone top-30 result since the restart.
I can see Casey, at 64th on the points list, just playing out the string, while Scott should still be refreshed and recharged with just two starts under his belt this summer.
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Josh Perry
Tyrrell Hatton (-125) over Gary Woodland
This one is pretty simple.
Hatton is a few scrolls ahead of Woodland in the outright markets this week and with good reason. The Englishman is playing better golf right now.
Hatton's ball-striking has been solid outside of one event. The same can't be said for Woodland, who has been all over the map.
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Collin Wilson
Billy Horschel (-110) over Matt Kuchar
After a heartbreaking runner-up at the Wyndham Championship, Horschel stumbled out of the gates at TPC Boston, posting three double-bogeys and missing the cut.
I still like Horschel to put up a good result this week as he currently sits 30th in the FedEx Cup Standings. That may be enough motivation to play better than Kuchar, who is 55th in the table.
This is a bad course fit for Kuchar with long par 3's and par 4's which don't suit his game.
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Matthew Vincenzi
Tony Finau (-106) over Viktor Hovland
I fully expect Tony Finau to bounce back after a disappointing missed cut at The Northern Trust. He actually gained 1.7 strokes Off the Tee last week and 1.3 on approach, so I have no concerns about his current form.
His past finishes at the BMW Championships have been excellent, having finished 4th in 2019, 8th in 2018, 7th in 2017. Alternatively, Viktor Hovland gained 5.2 strokes putting last week at The Northern Trust which was the best SG: Putting performance of his career.
To this point, Hovland has been a well below average putter so I don’t think his recent performance on the greens is sustainable.
His tee to green performance was not overly impressive last week (+0.3 SG:T2G) so I’ll take the track record and consistency of Finau in this matchup.
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