The BMW Championship heads to moving day after a wild round second from Castle Pines. On Friday, we saw a lot more of what I saw in my 48 hours on the grounds earlier in the week. I predicted a ton of wedges, soft conditions and for birdies to be flowing.
That is precisely what we saw in the second round. Over the weekend, I expect the course to firm up a tad, which means the scoring will slow down a little, but 20 under still seems to be a great barometer. This course will still be vulnerable as long as the wind is not absolutely whipping. Below, we take a look at both the leaderboard and the odds board to try and find some winners heading into the weekend. So, let's get to my BWM Championship round three picks.
Adam Scott: -13 (+160)
Keegan Bradley: -10 (+550)
Ludvig Aberg: -9 (+360)
Alex Noren -8 (+1400)
Taylor Pendrith -7 (+2000)
Sungjae Im -6 (+2500)
Corey Conners -6 (+2500)
BMW Championship Round Three Picks, Bets Bets
Collin Morikawa Top 10 (-110)
If you watched or bet Collin Morikawa this week, you are extremely frustrated. Morikawa heads into the weekend at -4 with two 70s. It's safe to say he left A LOT out there. If you look at his stat line, you'll find out that he's coughing up strokes on and around the greens. Morikawa is 13th in the field off the tee and fifth on approach. On the other end, he is 47th around the green and 30th in putting. In a 50-man field, that's not great.
I loved what he did on the back nine in round two — he shot 31 and made four straight birdies. It really looked like he found something on the greens, which is great momentum heading into the weekend. Morikawa is still in the mix to win this event and this is a great number for him to get in the top 10.
Ludvig Aberg To Win (+360)
We have a pre-tournament ticket on Ludvig Aberg at +2800 and I'm ready to double down! No one in the field has more birdies than the young Swede. Through 36 holes, Ludvig has made a birdie or better 16 times — a 44% birdie or better rate! However, too many dumb mistakes have cost him. Ludvig made back-to-back double bogeys on Thursday and rinsed the ball from 110 yards on one of those! He mentioned that his mistakes on Thursday were "aggressive mistakes," which he is okay with. He also clearly cleaned them up Friday. Every golfer who wants to have their breakthrough moment has to "have that moment." We may be in the midst of Ludvig's, so why not get ahead of it at 4-1?
Justin Thomas Top 20 (+1200)
The only thing killing Justin Thomas is the putter. He is nearly last in strokes gained putting, which tells me there is no where to go but up. There are going to be a ton of golfers who really check out this weekend, but Thomas knows he needs to keep his foot on the gas. Thomas is hitting the ball around average, but I loved what I saw from him heading into the week. Look for Thomas to keep firing at flags and hopefully roll a few more putts. He's worth a shot at 12-1.
