The PGA Tour season may be over, but golf never ends.
So this week, we'll to a look at one of the premier events on the European Tour as Wentworth prepares for the BMW PGA Championship.
The Course
Wentworth checks in at 7,284 yards for a par-72 course, usually proving not to be overly difficult unless heavy winds kick up. So the winner could be in the 15-20-under par range with good conditions. (Tyrrell Hatton won in 2020 at 19-under par.)
It tends to be a second-shot golf course where established names rise to the top. Three of past seven winners of this tournament (Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari and Danny Willett) have a major championship to their name. We've also seen Euro Tour stalwarts like the aforementioned Hatton and Alex Noren win this in recent year.
For those without that high-caliber win on the resume, iron play tends to go a long way for success. We saw that when Byeong-hun An won in his first appearance at the event in 2015.
The Favorites
Viktor Hovland opens at +1000 to top the board. He doesn't play on the European Tour often but in his two starts in the last year, he's won and tied for third. He also led the field at East Lake in Strokes Gained: Approach, so he's dialed and could be a tough favorite to beat this week.
The defending champ Hatton comes in next at +1600 followed by Shane Lowry at +1800. Hatton obviously can play well here and Lowry is coming off a season where he was inside the top 20 on the PGA Tour in approach. So his iron game is where it needs to be for a good week at Wentworth.
Tommy Fleetwood and Matthew Fitzpatrick are right behind them at +2200. Fleetwood nearly got in a playoff last week in Italy but the ball striking was mediocre and he was riding a really hot putter last week. He might dip a little in the strong field this week. Fitzpatrick was second at the Scottish Open two months ago, but that's his only top-25 result in his last six starts and he's coming off a missed cut last week.
The past winner Noren is joined by a couple PGA Tour regulars in Billy Horschel and Adam Scott at +2800. Horschel is coming off a solid week at East Lake and was fourth here two years ago. Scott doesn't make many trips to Europe. This is his first start on the continent outside The Open since playing the Scottish in 2017.
The Midtier
I'll start my card here with Bernd Wiesberger at +4500 on bet365. When he drifts into this range in Europe, I tend to take a chance with him. He finished second two weeks ago in Switzerland and really looked likely to win the event if not for an untimely poor approach from a bunker on the last hole. But the form is where in needs to be and he wins a solid clip over here with four in the last three years.
We'll also go to Victor Perez at +6000 on PointsBet. Perez is a great iron player on this tour. He's sits fifth in approach for the season and was second in Italy last week. He's also a great putter. The driver can give him trouble, but if he can keep it in play off the tee, this is a spot where he can contend.
I'll back Sam Horsfield at +7000 on bet365. He's second on the European Tour this year in Strokes Gained: Approach and was fourth last week with the irons in Italy. His results can be volatile, but he's in a good run of form recently, finishing inside the top 25 in three of his last four starts.
The Longshots
We'll go with Marcus Armitage at 140/1 on bet365. Armitage got his first win on the Euro Tour a couple months back in Germany and had a bit of a letdown after that. But he bounced back with a seventh at the Omega Masters two weeks ago — and even though he missed the cut last week — he still gained over four strokes with the irons in his two rounds. So at this price, I think he's worth a look.
The BMW PGA Championship Card
- Bernd Wiesberger +4500 (.73 units)
- Victor Perez +6000 (.55 units)
- Sam Horsfield +7000 (.47 units)
- Marcus Armitage +14000 (.24 units)
Total Stake: 1.99 units
