The PGA Tour heads to Southampton, Bermuda for the 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship — the penultimate event in the 2023 PGA Tour season.
This is the fifth playing of the Bermuda Championship, and like other recent events on the PGA Tour, this tournament doesn't have Shotlink data available.
Port Royal Golf Course presents a unique challenge as it's the second-shortest course on Tour at just 6,828 yards. The course features three par-5s which are all under 560 yards, 11 par-4s which all are under 460 yards and four par-3s, three of which are at least 213 yards and feature Bogey or Worse Rates of 26%-31% historically.
As a result, I'm not factoring in Driving Distance as much as usual. I'm weighing Driving Accuracy more than usual and am putting an added emphasis on Approach Proximity Under 150 Yards and Par-3 Scoring. I'll also be weighing Birdie or Better Rate significantly as our selections will need to get to the seven-under par range to become the first-round leader.
With Bermuda's location in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean, it can get extremely windy, but as of late Wednesday afternoon, winds are expected to stay at seven miles per hour or lower for the duration of the first round. As a result, I'm not expecting a significant advantage in the first round for either the morning or afternoon wave.
Find my first-round leader picks for the 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship below.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship 2023 FRL Picks
Thomas Detry +4000 (FanDuel)
First-Round Tee Time: 6:56 a.m. ET
Thomas Detry has shown an affinity for Port Royal Golf Course as he has played in the Bermuda Championship twice and finished 22nd in 2021 and second in 2022. Detry shot 68 or lower in all four rounds here last year, and should have a decent chance of getting to the seven-under par range to cash our FRL tickets on Thursday.
Detry is 14th in this field with a 22.52% Birdie or Better Rate on the PGA Tour this season, and his identical rank of 14th in Total Driving in this field should allow him plenty of opportunities to score Thursday.
While Detry is longer than straight off the tee, he has shown that he thrives in these type of club-down-courses, where he can increase his accuracy but still remain more than long enough off the tee with a driving iron or fairway wood in his hands.
Per Spencer Aguiar, my cohost on the Links + Locks Podcast, Detry leads the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Bermuda Putting Greens that are Slow and Soft. This should allow Detry to capitalize on his birdie opportunities, especially on a course where he's had early success. Aguiar also has Detry ranked third in this field in Strokes Gained on Short Courses, so Detry's success here is no fluke.
Check out the new user FanDuel promo code offer before placing your bets on Thomas Detry.
While he should make birdies on Thursday, Detry should also limit damage on the long par-3s as he ranks 16th in this field in Weighted Par-3 Scoring (which is weighted to mimic the length of the par-3s at Port Royal).
Overall, Detry ranks 21st in this field in Bogey Avoidance and is seventh in Scrambling, so he should have a good chance of getting up and down when he is out of position, especially considering his favorable putting splits on these slow and soft Bermudagrass surfaces.
While most of the market has the Illinois product priced at +3300 for first-round leader, FanDuel has him at +4000.
Lucas Glover +4500 (FanDuel)
First-Round Tee Time: 6:23 a.m. ET
I'm buying the dip on Lucas Glover because he might be the best golfer in this field and we're getting a nice chance to buy low on him after a disappointing T59 finish last week in Cabo.
I'm not discouraged by that result because it came on a very different style of course, which took away Glover's Driving Accuracy advantage. It also served as an opportunity for the Clemson product to shake off the rust as he hadn't played competitively since the Tour Championship in August.
Glover, the 2009 US Open champion, has always been an absolute flusher with his irons, but now that he has conquered his putting yips, he's reestablished himself as one of the better players on Tour after finishing 18th in the FedExCup Playoffs. He is the only golfer in this week's field who reached the Tour Championship.
Check out the new user FanDuel promo code offer before placing your bets on Lucas Glover.
Glover's combination of Driving Accuracy (sixth on Tour), Approach play (15th overall in SG: Approach on Tour and first in this field in both Weighted Proximity and Ball-Striking) and strong putting splits on Bermuda (eighth in this field) mean he should be a perfect fit for Port Royal. His wind results haven't been great, but the lack of wind on Thursday will work in his favor.
The six-time PGA Tour winner also leads this field in Weighted Par-3 Scoring, ranks fifth in Bogey Avoidance and is 12th in Scrambling, so I have confidence in his ability to avoid trouble.
Glover is as low as +3300 in the first-round leader market, but is available at +4500 odds at FanDuel to have the low round on Thursday, and I'd bet him down to +4000.
