Betting outrights in golf can be incredibly painful. I had three outrights last week; two were in the mix on Sunday. Unfortunately, Austin Eckroat went nuclear in the final round to edge out Carson Young (who we had at +7500).
We also had Max Greyserman on the card, who finished in fourth. Hopefully, some of you who tailed the picks bet them each-way or added top five or top 10 bets.
We dust ourselves off and return to work this week for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. This event is held in Bermuda, which has more golf courses per square mile than anywhere else in the world.
Port Royal Golf Course is a Par 71 that measures only 6,828 yards. This is a course where distance is not a prerequisite for success and that's evident in the past winners (Brendon Todd, Brian Gay, etc.).
This is a beautiful course that has a nice mixture of inland holes and ones right on the coast. There aren't a ton of trees on the property, which means the course is exposed to the elements. The course's biggest defense is the wind and early forecasts call for plenty of it this week.
We are currently expecting 25+ MPH wind gusts for two of the four days and maybe even some rain on Saturday.
According to DataGolf's course fit tool, driving distance and driving accuracy are less important here than most courses on the PGA TOUR. This is one of the few second shots and in the type of courses that golfers will see throughout the season. I'm focusing most of my attention on strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green, strokes gained putting (bermudagrass), and bogey avoidance.
I'm keeping the card small this week. There were only two golfers at their respective odds that jumped out to me.
Ben Griffin +2000 (DraftKings)
While not the best off the tee, Griffin is 14th or better in this field in strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green, strokes gained putting, and bogey avoidance over the last 12 months.
He's made the cut in both of his appearances in Bermuda and finished 3rd here in 2022. He's been very active in the fall, so we don't have to worry about him coming into the event with rust. He's also played in each of the last five PGA TOUR events and has finished in the top 25 in three of them.
The form is good, the course history is solid, and the course fit is elite. He's the top projected golfer in my model this week.
Andrew Putnam +3300 (FanDuel)
We haven't seen Putnam in contention in a while, but he does have a PGA TOUR win under his belt and has two top-10 finishes this year.
For me, it's more about the course fit. He's not a good driver, but the rest of his game is elite (at least compared to the rest of the field).
He's 12th in strokes gained approach, ninth in strokes gained around the green, and second in strokes gained putting on Bermuda greens. He's made the cut in all four of the fall events he has played in and has posted three straight top-30 finishes.
Let's hope for some better luck if our bets are in the mix this week.
