2022 Charles Schwab Challenge: Updated Odds & Picks for Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, More

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TULSA, Okla. –- Ah, a tradition unlike any other: Previewing the next week’s tournament while still on-site at the previous week’s major championship.

I’ll keep this one regrettably truncated for the upcoming Charles Schwab Challenge, but thankfully there’s plenty of data to employ for a tournament that has been contested at Colonial Country Club for decades longer than any of the current competitors have even been alive.

We know what we’re getting with Colonial, a 7,209-yard par-70 that requires an emphasis on precision off the tee and ball-striking more than the bomb-and-gouge strategies of other PGA TOUR venues.

One quick note as we travel from one Perry Maxwell design at Southern Hills to another: Last Wednesday, during his pre-tournament press conference, Jordan Spieth compared the two courses, saying, “It reminds me a lot of Colonial, just a little bit on steroids, a little more undulation and driver in your hands more.”

While neither of the eventual playoff competitors at the PGA Championship has much Colonial experience — Justin Thomas has played it twice Will Zalatoris once — I do think we can extrapolate this comparison to understand which players fared well last week and might do so on a shorter version of a similar track at this one.

With that in mind, I’m looking at a bunch of players who fared well in different aspects of their games at Southern Hills -– and especially toward the end –- while passing on those who are fresh off a serious title contention.

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Outright Winner

Brian Harman (+5500)

The final-round leader in Strokes Gained: Approach shots last week wasn’t Thomas or Zalatoris or any of the ball-striking contenders. It was Brian Harman, who gained 2.90 strokes with his irons. This is a metric where I’ll be targeting many of my plays this week, as Chris Kirk, Maverick McNealy, Justin Rose and Collin Morikawa (each of whom will be listed below) were all inside the top-10 on Sunday.

Harman only posted a 1-under 69 in that final round, but it wasn’t an inability to post red numbers that held him back. For the weekend, he tallied an eagle and eight birdies, but it was nine bogeys that kept him from seriously climbing the board.

At a course where he owns three top-10s and six top-25s in nine starts, I’ll play him outright here, though it’s not such a confident play that I won’t have a handful of others on the card, as well.

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Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done options

Kevin Na (+5000)

The winner at Colonial three years ago, Na owns five top-10s in 15 starts. He’s a consistent high-floor play, which means he’s more valuable in OADs for those who might only need to tread water at the top, though he (obviously) has some win equity, too.

Kevin Kisner (+8000)

Here’s your presumed OAD chalk, assuming teams have either used Jordan Spieth elsewhere or are saving him for a big one. Kisner won here in 2017 on the heels of top-10 results the previous two years, but he should come with a bit of a warning label, considering he hasn’t finished better than 29th here in his past four starts.

Gary Woodland (+4500)

Due to the course yardage, we’ll often look to use only the short, accurate types at Colonial, but don’t forget about the big hitters, either. Case in point: Jason Kokrak won last year and Tony Finau was runner-up three years ago.

Woodland falls into the same category, a guy who can employ something less than a driver on many of the par-4s, simply angling for a good position with his second shot. With results of ninth and 14th in the past two years, don’t be scared to use him.

Justin Rose (+4500)

Talk about a forgotten man, Rose hadn’t even played since the Masters and when he has played, it hasn’t been great, with MCs in each of his previous three stroke-play starts.

Last week, though, he posted a T13 finish at the PGA Championship and now returns to a place where he won four years ago and has never missed a cut in eight tries.

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Top-Five

One player to finish top-five.

Collin Morikawa (+275 for top-five)

If you’re taking some Harman-esque shots on outrights, it might be smart to counter with some big names for prop plays.

Morikawa didn’t have anything close to his best stuff at Southern Hills, but as mentioned earlier, the ball-striking numbers looked to be his usual top-shelf stuff in the final round. Following a runner-up result in his first career start two years ago, he was T14 last year, showing that this is a course which is right up his alley.

Top-10

One player to finish top-10.

Chris Kirk (+450 for top-10)

If you’d asked me early on Sunday for a favorite outright at Colonial, I likely would’ve offered up Kirk, but a T5 finish has me thinking he’s a bit too chalky and perhaps a bit too short in the books.

Even so, the 2015 winner here is clearly worth a play, even if he’s been a bit all-or-nothing lately. He’s cashed three top-10 tickets in his past seven starts but also has three MCs during that time. I do like the upside, though.

Top-20

One player to finish top-20.

Maverick McNealy (+250 for top-20)

While he didn’t show his typical high floor last week, McNealy has proven to be a dangerous commodity on short courses, playing well at places such as Pebble Beach and Harbour Town so far in his young career. He also seems like he’s on the verge of figuring this one out, improving from 42nd in his first start to 32nd at the next one to 20th last year.

Top-30

One player to finish top-30.

Kurt Kitayama

Like Kirk, Kitayama is seemingly a guy with big-time upside and downside — at least recently. In his past seven starts, he owns four top-30s, including a pair of top-three finishes, but three MCs. I’d be a little conservative, though, since this is his first time playing the event.

Top-40

One player to finish top-40.

Aaron Rai (+200 for top-40)

This is decidedly too conservative on a guy who’s proven he can manage better, but his game hasn’t been in great form recently. He should be a nice low-end DFS play, as well.

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Jordan Spieth

A few weeks ago, I wrote that the dirty little secret of Spieth’s schedule in Texas is that the AT&T Byron Nelson has always been more near and dear to his heart than the Charles Schwab.

The other part of that, of course, is that he’s fared much better at Colonial over the years, with a win in 2016, three runner-up finishes and seven top-10s in nine starts.

We don’t have to go back very far to realize Spieth can thrive one week after a major, having followed up a missed cut at last month’s Masters with a victory at the RBC Heritage the very next week.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS.

David Lipsky

The world is starting to realize that this man owns a lot of talent — but so are the books, which might make him a more attractive play in the DFS marketplace than betting. With a pair of top-10s in his past five starts, this should be a track that suits his precision game.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low score Thursday.

Ryan Palmer (+5500 for FRL)

Fresh off a major championship, some players can be excused if they’re not quite grinding away at the practice range like usual. I don’t mind taking a chance on someone who knows this track better than anyone else.

Palmer is a member at Colonial and has played this event 18 times. With a first-round scoring average of 69.39 that includes a 62, a pair of 66s and a handful of other sub-70 scores, a home game might be the right recipe for finding a low Thursday round.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players.

Tommy Fleetwood (+3000)

With so much past data on so many players who have been competing at this one for years, it’s tough to invest in one who has no history whatsoever, but this feels like a course which should play to Fleetwood’s strengths.

Coming off a T5 last week, the Englishman should carry some momentum without it feeling like he’s already reached a peak. He’s also made the cut in eight consecutive starts, which offers plenty of value in H2H plays.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value.

Abraham Ancer (+3000), Billy Horschel (+4200), Webb Simpson (+4200), Davis Riley (+4200), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+9500), Matthew NeSmith (+11000), Patton Kizzire (+11000), Joel Dahmen (+12000), Emiliano Grillo (+16000), Doc Redman (+25000)

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The Big Fade

One top player to avoid at this tournament.

Daniel Berger (+3700)

Don’t look now, but the man who won here two years ago — part of a lengthy, yet underrated run during which he was playing nearly as well as anyone in the world — hasn’t finished inside the top-20 in his past four starts, including a missed cut at Southern Hills where he was 13-over through two rounds. Granted, he lost a lot more strokes with the putter than the irons, but it’s tough to believe he’ll be ready to bounce back with a big one this week.

Then again, my favorite fades have fared well recently, so maybe you just let it all ride on DB Straight Vibin’ this week instead.

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