If ever there was a tournament to bet on a longshot, it's the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge.
A lot has been written about how the unique circumstances of this weekend's PGA TOUR event could lead to a funky leaderboard and that
Which longshots should you consider this weekend? Our golf analysts share their picks below.
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2020 Charles Schwab Challenge Sleeper Picks
Jason Sobel
Ryan Palmer +7000 ($10 wins $700)
Joining us on The Action Network Podcast this week, I asked Palmer to sell himself to potential bettors on why they should play him this week. There’s an obvious connection here – he’s a member at Colonial and finished T-6 here a year ago, his fourth top-six result at this event since 2012.
But he offered three other reasons, too: 1) He’s in form, having posted a 64 in his usual game last Friday, despite a bogey on the last; 2) He’s more accustomed than most others to playing Colonial in its natural state, with no bleachers or corporate tents lining the fairways, so it should feel more comfortable; and 3) No fans means no ticket requests from friends and neighbors, no extra responsibilities that so often come with playing in a hometown event.
I was already on Palmer anyway, but even more so for all of those reasons.
Josh Perry
Abraham Ancer +8000
Ancer should be fairly comfortable playing in Texas. Even though he plays under the Mexican flag, the 29-year-old was actually born in the Lone Star State and played his junior college golf at Odessa College before transferring to Oklahoma.
Ancer has been teeing it up alongside the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland in a couple play events in the state. He didn’t win the event but it will likely be to his benefit to have competitive golf under his belt.
Bryan Mears
Adam Hadwin +12500
As I wrote here, I’m not a big outright bettor, and I think this week is especially tough to handicap. I do think this week caters to longshots; I would not be surprised at all if someone 100/1 or higher takes home the crown. Finding that person in such a huge field is obviously tough, and as a result I’ll likely invest more in plus-money matchups.
But #content, so I’ll give my thoughts on a golfer I think is interesting at a triple-digit number in Hadwin. He has boom-or-bust history here, placing in the top-50 each of his last two trips but banking a top-five back in 2015.
And the course fits him well: He’s one of the best putters in the field, and he’s solid in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 30 rounds or so. If he’s able to hold the small greens — or if that’s just generally tough and it turns into a putting contest — he’ll be in good shape to be in contention, despite the tough field.
I am going to be very interested to see which parts of golfers’ games come back the quickest following this long layoff. I assume a lot of these guys have been practicing a ton, but will great putters get an unusual boost due to feel being more important than pure repetition?
Honestly who knows with all of these narratives. I’ll be focusing on golfers with good iron play and short games, and Hadwin fits that archetype at a big number. Why not?
(If you don’t want to take him as an outright bet, you can find him at plus money to be the top Canadian golfer; he just has to beat Corey Conners and Mackenzie Hughes.)
More Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Coverage
- Sobel: Kisner, Palmer Could Fly Under the Radar
- Perry: Should You Fade the Chalk This Weekend?
- Mears: Why Colonial Is Perfect for Longshots
