The TOUR is back in Texas, which usually means Jordan Spieth is back on top and that played out on Thursday. He came out of the gates off of a fairly average performance at the PGA Championship to post a 7-under 63 at Colonial Country Club.
It was the closing stretch of holes that allowed him to post a round three better than anyone else in the morning wave as he birdied the final three holes on his way into the clubhouse. The winds were really starting to kick up which made the lead, at least for the day, feel insurmountable, but he would eventually be matched by another Masters Champion in Sergio Garcia.
The shot of the day for Garcia, and possibly across the field, was a hole-out for eagle from the greenside bunker at the Par 5 11th. He added one more on the back nine to match Spieth for a two-shot co-lead heading into Round 2 on Friday.
Forty players shot under par in the opening round of the Charles Schwab Challenge on Thursday. It feels like a much bigger lead, especially with Spieth involved, but really there is a lot of opportunity for movement going into the second round. The forecast is calling for light winds, and with soft greens, I expect we could see some players challenge the 63s shot today.
Let's take a look at the strokes gained data from Round 1 to see who might be able to go low and position themselves for a late-afternoon tee time on the weekend.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer is truly playing by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different — Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics…
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, ball-striking and tee-to-green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 2
One player that turned into a popular pick, at least in DFS circles as the week went on was Brandt Snedeker. His first round certainly merited the hype as he was able to post a 4-under 66 to open his tournament.
The most encouraging aspect of Snedeker's round was his ball-striking that had him gaining more than three strokes on the field. He was balanced in that category between his off-the-tee game and his approach, as he gained right around a shot-and-a-half in each category. The putter came along on Thursday as he gained 1.55 strokes on the greens, but that has always been a strength of his game. Sneds has lost strokes on the greens in only one of six trips to Colonial Country Club in his career, and four of those times he gained three or more strokes on the field.
I expect to see the Vanderbilt alum continue to roll it well throughout the week, and if his ball-striking is going to stay sharp, he can contend throughout the weekend. I'm buying in now at +2800 on DraftKings with Snedeker who appears to have found some sharp form in his last few events.
I'm going hesitantly into my next buy with Sebastian Munoz. It's not that I don't believe in his talent or that he can't win, but he's extremely volatile. He has a tendency to turn it on, then completely lose it at a moments notice.
My buy for the Colombian is more about the number available at +8000 on DraftKings for a player with a TOUR win under his belt. He also did it in all the right areas on Thursday as he missed just three fairways and gained more than a stroke-and-a-half on the field with his irons in the opening round.
The odds available are worth the risk of him being able to keep it together, especially as he gets to go back out in ideal conditions tomorrow morning. If Munoz can keep his ball striking going, he has staying power the rest of the way.
If I am looking for a guy that can go really low and get himself back in the mix, it's Corey Conners. The Canadian was the fourth-best player in the field for strokes gained ball-striking on Thursday, but as has been his issue for his entire career, he couldn't make a putt, leaving him at even par on the round.
Conners gave more than two strokes back to the field with his putting in the opening round, but he's much improved in that category this year. He ranks 88th in strokes gained putting this season, which isn't a ton to write home about until you realize he was 181st in the category last season.
He's improved nearly 100 spots and is actually gaining strokes putting on the season. While he likely needs an even par or worse round from Spieth at some point to get back in this, he certainly has the ability to post a low score of his own. I'll buy in at a juicy +6500 on FanDuel with the hopes he can really get back in the mix on Friday.
3 Golfers to Fade in Round 2
I'm pretty concerned that this tournament is all but over with Jordan Spieth's track record at Colonial. While Sergio Garcia is also a former winner of this tournament, I am less concerned that he runs away with it on Friday.
He had a great round to post a 7-under 63, but he didn't do it with his typically elite ball-striking. Sergio relied on a hot short game on and around the greens, gaining more than five strokes on the field in those categories. We know that Garcia is a less-than-great putter, and that's being kind, which has me not quite believing that he can gain another 2.85 strokes with his putter in the second round. I'm jumping in on an early fade as I expect he comes back to Earth with his short game, and that could have his game stall even if he sharpens things up tee to green.
I hate to put the kibosh on a great story like Erik Compton, who had a heart transplant at the age of 12. He is someone that is easy to root for any time we get to see his name in the field, much less around the top of the leaderboard.
My issue with Compton is solely based in the numbers. He gained more than five strokes on the field with his hot putter on Thursday, and while he paired it with a solid iron game, it just doesn't appear sustainable. I'm fading Erik on the numbers, but rooting to be wrong on this one.
The final fade for me in the opening round is with Doc Redman. It's giving me a little bit of deja vu writing up the former Clemson Tiger in this category as he had similar results at the Byron Nelson.
He may have found some form with his short game over the past few weeks, but the fact is that over the long term, he isn't a good putter. Redman gained more than two strokes putting on the field Thursday despite losing strokes tee to green. If he can turn it around with his typically solid ball-striking and keep the putter going, he certainly has the ability to remain in shouting distance of the lead. This is one that we will have a bead on early in his round on Friday.
