Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional, official player prop picks: Today we have 11 NBA and five NHL games.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
170-143-9, +26.23 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 74-59-2, +8.37 Units
- NHL: 53-63-6, -4.79 Units
- Golf: 4-4-1, +0.65 Units
- NASCAR: 4-2-0. +2.55 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
- NCAAB: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 14-0-0. +9.73 Units
Freedman’s Favorite PGA Matchup (Feb. 27): Dylan Frittelli vs. Sung-jae Im at Honda Classic
- Dylan Frittelli: +100
- Sung-jae Im: -120
The Honda Classic tees off at PGA National on Thursday (Feb. 28, 6:45 a.m. ET). Last week there were several head-to-head matchups I liked, but this week there's really one matchup that catches my eye: Dylan Frittelli vs. Sung-jae Im.
Im is on Josh Perry's card this week:
He’s off to a strong start in his rookie year. He’s finished in the top 15 four times and has gained strokes with the approach in seven of the last 10 events.
Justin Bailey likes Im as a daily fantasy play:
Sung-jae Im ($7,300 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel) has missed the cut in two of his past four events due to his cold putter, averaging over 30 PPR at both Genesis and Pebble Beach — although it’s also worth noting that Genesis and Pebble had rather poor conditions. Despite the missed cuts, he managed to keep his bogeys to a minimum, averaging just 6.8 per tournament over the past five weeks.
But the FantasyLabs PGA Models point to Frittelli.
Over the past 75 weeks, Frittelli has the superior numbers in a few important metrics.
- Adjusted round score: 69.9 vs. 70.2
- Driving distance: 302.7 vs. 294.0
- Field strength: 83.5% vs. 65.8%
Additionally, Frittelli has the slightly higher DraftKings salary ($7,400 vs. $7,300).
Because of how correlated DraftKings pricing is with odds to win, I'd be tempted to bet any underdog at plus money if he had the higher DFS salary.
I wouldn't bet on Frittelli any lower than +100, because I think his odds of finishing ahead of Im are just slightly better than 50%.
But of the two, I definitely prefer Frittelli.
The Pick: Fritelli (+100)
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
