Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
18-15-3, +10.23 Units
- Golf: 2-2-1, +0.30 Units
- NFL: 5-5-0, +6.83 Units
- NBA: 6-5-0, +0.30 Units
- NHL: 5-2-2, +3.80 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite PGA Round 1 Matchup for Thursday, Jan. 24: Jon Rahm vs. Jason Day
- Jon Rahm: -140
- Jason Day: +120
I've been on the wrong side of every NBA player prop I've highlighted this week. It's time to take a break from the hardwood, and luckily the Farmers Insurance Open starts today (noon ET).
Rahm and Day tee off in the 12:30 p.m. ET group at the 10th hole on the north course at Torrey Pines. Rahm won the event in 2017, and Day won it last year, so both golfers know the course and have had success here.
Rahm is the betting favorite to win at +1000, and in the FantasyLabs Golf Models, he has the better recent adjusted round score (67.6 vs. 68.2).
But I prefer Day in this Round 1 matchup. Day has the fourth-highest odds to win at +1600, so he's not a pushover, and he has the long-term edge in some key metrics.
- Adjusted round score: 68.1 vs. 68.4
- Driving distance: 310.7 vs. 307.0
- Scrambling: 60.8% vs. 57.5%
- Putts per round: 28.2 vs. 29.1
- Field strength: 93.3% vs. 92.3%
Over the past 75 weeks, Day has hit the ball farther off the tee, has been more successful at making par when his approach shot hasn't landed on the green, has been more effective when putting and has played against tougher competition.
Long term, Day has been the better golfer. At least that's what the numbers suggest. At a minimum, he hasn't been significantly worse than Rahm.
This matchup is available at MyBookie. I would bet it down to +110.
The Pick: Day (+120)
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
