There will undoubtedly be some disappointment from fans that Tiger Woods didn't find himself in the mix after day one, but the 48-year-old looked sharp when diving into various portions of his game.
I thought the iron play was better than the -1.05 strokes he lost for round one. Woods complained of back spasms over the final couple of holes, which likely caused his ball to travel only 67 yards on the 18th to wrap up his round. However, his ability to attack all three par-fives and play them at three-under par could be a good sign moving forward if his health holds up its end of the bargain.
We will see how Woods turns things around for day two, but here are some of the head-to-head matchups involving the 82-time winner if you are curious in becoming invested in either playing or fading him Friday.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Genesis Invitational Round 2 Predictions
Tony Finau -120 over Jason Day (Bet365)
In case anyone didn't think I was serious about my break-up with Jason Day, nothing screams "WE ARE OVER!" more than a post-Valentine's Day public statement here inside an Action Network article.
If we are being honest, there was much to like about how Day performed Thursday at Rivera Country Club. Isn't that always the truth when you look back at a relationship that just ended? We only ever see the good in a person.
His second-place output of shooting six under par blended well with his third-place projected score when I merged in some of his short-game baseline metrics. That area of my sheet is typically the No. 1 indicator of a potential next-round implosion if you don't get those categories correlating as one. The fact that he did get a fair result highlights a golfer who has the potential to roll it back again Friday. However, there is also something to be said about the overcorrection the market has experienced after one day.
The 36-year-old still placed outside the top 20 of my expected round two performances because of some recent tee-to-green data. A ranking of 65th in my model out of 70 players over his past 24 rounds in that category marginally weakened my intrigue about him keeping it up for two consecutive rounds, which stemmed primarily from an approach game that overachieved my baseline projection by 1.76 shots. There is no guarantee we see him come crashing back down to earth, but I do wonder what happens if he falters in that area as the conditions start to speed up over the next few days.
My model thought the Aussie should have won by 0.3 shots when all was said and done. Still, the five-shot disparity from Day's six-under mark to Finau's one-under total can continue to be pinpointed to a putter that can't hit the bottom of the Pacific Ocean for the American if he was standing on the edge of the water and needed to hit it in before the tide rolled back.
That could be something that comes to bite us in round two if Finau's continued downturn continues to plague some of the more pristine ball-striking we see every contest. Nonetheless, Poa greens can catch up to anyone. If the whole narrative of how Day wins derives from needing to massively out gain Finau with the flat stick, I will bet on a return to normalcy with the other aspects of his game.
Roses are red
Violets are blue
I have moved on to Wyndham Clark
And I will splurge a little on Tony Finau, too.
