We're finally on the board in 2024 after hitting on Joaquin Niemann at +1400 in his win at LIV Mayakoba. We were close in a few other spots as well with top-five finishes at Pebble Beach, Qatar and South Africa, so we'll try to keep that going this week.
WM Phoenix Open
Best Bet: Eric Cole +5000 (BetRivers)
I'll have a limited card this week on the PGA Tour. DraftKings treated this event like a major and provided odds for a few months, so I already have Wyndham Clark (+6000), Sahith Theegala (+6500) and Billy Horschel (+13000). We knew this wasn't an elevated event this year, so guys like Rory McIlroy probably wouldn't play.
After Jon Rahm's defection to LIV and Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele withdrawing, this has produced some decent Closing Line Value (CLV). Clark unfortunately won a week too early, and Horschel is still available at the same price, but I probably wouldn't play him at this point given his slow start. Theegala is still interesting if you can find him at +4000.
TPC Scottsdale is one of the stronger course history spots on Tour. Brooks Koepka is the last golfer to win here without a top 10 when he did so in his debut back in 2015.
That's what led to many of the early plays, but for my primary pick, I'll hope Cole can pull a Koepka and win in his debut. He's a great fit for the course because he keeps the driver in play and is very strong with the irons and around the greens. He's finished 21st or better in four of the first five events this year, so his solid play from last year has continued in the new season.
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Other WM Phoenix Open Outright Bets:
- Wyndham Clark +6000
- Sahith Theegala +6500
- Billy Horschel +13000
- Nick Taylor +17000
Qatar Masters
Best Bet: Tom McKibbin +2500 (BetRivers)
The DP World Tour is back in Qatar this week. We just saw this course in October, which is what leads me to Tom McKibbin. The 21-year-old finished ninth here a few months back. That week, he had his best putting week of the season and was carried mostly by his short game.
Usually, that's what we tend to avoid when betting golf, but so far in 2024, his ball-striking has been in great shape. I'm hopeful that the driving and iron play will stay hot, and he can find that same comfort level on these greens that we saw a few months ago.
Other Bets:
- Jesper Svensson +5500
- Aaron Cockerill +6500
- Sam Bairstow +15000
- Ugo Coussaud +25000
- Joel Girrbach +35000
LIV Las Vegas
Best Bet: Brooks Koepka +1400 (FanDuel)
Just like last week, it's a one-player card on LIV. This time, we'll go to Brooks Koepka.
When Koepka is dialed in, he's the best guy on this tour outside of maybe Jon Rahm. With LIV, it seems to be mostly about motivation. We've seen some guys take it seriously and some wither away. Koepka is in that former category. He won three times last season including the PGA Championship. Then he opened last week in fifth as his ball-striking was on par with Niemann's.
LIV Golf events tend to be chaotic, and I imagine that will be turned up another notch heading to Las Vegas during Super Bowl week. If anyone can handle chaos, it's the two-time Phoenix Open winner.
I think we're getting an in-form and motivated Koepka this week.
Astara Golf Championship
Best Bet: Ryan Gerard +5000 (BetRivers)
This was the tournament on the Korn Ferry Tour that helped propel Ryan Gerard to the PGA Tour last year. He took the momentum from finishing third here a year ago, then followed up with a fourth at the Honda Classic and an 11th in at the Puerto Rico Open to gain temporary membership.
He wasn't able to keep the card, so he's back here. However, the form is solid so far, and he's coming off an 11th last week in Panama. He's got the talent to make it back to the Tour, so this is a good price on a course we know he likes.
Other Bets:
- Fred Biondi +5000
- Ricky Castillo +5000
- Zach Bauchou +9000
- Austin Hitt +10000
- Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira +20000
Bain's Whisky Cape Town Open
Best Bet: Jamie Rutherford +4000 (bet365)
The Challenge Tour will spend another week in South Africa, and I'll focus on Jamie Rutherford here. He's been on this tour for a couple years now with a lot of solid finishes but is just missing that win to push him to the next level. He opened his season with a tie for seventh last week and has placed eighth and 21st in two trips here.
Other Bets:
- Dylan Mostert +7000
- Gerhard Pepler +12500
- Daniel Young +16000
Webex Players Series Sydney
Best Bet: Andrew Martin +2900 (FanDuel)
We got a mixed-field event on the PGA of Australia with the men and women. We've seen the men usually come out with wins in most of these tournaments, so that's where my focus will be.
My play here is Andrew Martin. He's off to a good start this year with a second and third in the first three events. He's also won in each of the last three seasons on this tour, so we seem to be getting a good price on a proven winner in solid form.
Other Bets:
- Nick Voke +4000
- Kade McBride +7000
Magical Kenya Ladies Open
Best Bet: Annabell Fuller +4000 (bet365)
It's the opening week for the Ladies Euro Tour in Kenya. This is a tour where I look for younger players on the rise before they've really put up many results.
I'll go to Annabell Fuller here, who just recently turned pro after playing her college golf at Florida. She made her way through Q-School by winning her pre-Q event by four shots, then she finished fifth in the final to lock up her tour card as an amateur. If that kind of form carries over into the season, she'll find herself among the favorites shortly.
Other Bets:
- Hannah Screen +5000
- April Angurasaranee +6000
- Pia Babnik +20000
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