There's not a lot going on in the golf world during the month of December, but we do have the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas this week. Tiger Woods hosts this event every year but unfortunately won't be able to tee it up this week.
While this isn't an official PGA Tour event, there's $5 million up for grabs and only 20 golfers in the field. All golfers are guaranteed to play all four rounds barring a withdrawal.
Hero World Challenge Preview
Albany Golf Course is a par-72 that measures 7,449 yards. It is a fairly easy course that features five par 3s and five par 5s. We don't have any ShotLink data from past editions of this event, but we've seen good iron players and good around-the-green players perform well here over the years.
The fairways are fairly wide but sand dunes and bushes come into play if you stray too far offline.
The way I see it, there are two options on the betting front this week. You can bet Scottie Scheffler at +230 (bet365) and ignore the rest of the field. This isn't a number that we like in golf odds, but we'd love to hit a +230 underdog in any other sport.
Scheffler won this event last year and finished 2nd here in both 2022 and 2021. He's won five of the last 11 no-cut events and is the best iron player and scrambler in the field. I don't blame anyone for betting Scheffler this week, but I wouldn't condone adding anyone else to the outright card. You don't want to spread yourself too thin.
I'm hoping the Texas Longhorn can have a subpar week and let one of these other golfers get a win. Here are the two golfers that I am betting to win for my Hero World Challenge predictions.
Hero World Challenge Predictions & Outright Picks
Justin Thomas +1000 (FanDuel)
I seem to bet on Justin Thomas to win this event every year and he always gives me a sweat on Sunday. In his last four appearances at Albany, he has finished 3rd, 5th, 5th, and 5th.
He's a great statistical fit for the course, as his two biggest strengths are iron play and scrambling. The putter held him back for most of 2024, but he is coming off a 2nd place finish at the Zozo Championship. We don't have ShotLink data from that event, but he finished 3rd in the field in greens in regulation.
He's also good friends with the host of this week's event (Tiger), so maybe he'll get an inside scoop on how the course is playing (I write this in jest, but you never know).
Sungjae Im +1400 (DraftKings)
I was tempted to back Robert MacIntyre at +2800 given his recent form on the DP World Tour, but I decided to back Sungjae Im instead.
After a slow start in 2024, he put together an incredibly consistent stretch of golf in the second half of the year. In his last 15 starts on the PGA Tour, he has finished T13 or better 11 times. He doesn't have a win during that stretch but consistently gained strokes in all four parts of the game — off the tee, on approach, around the green, and putting.
He's always been an elite scrambler and I like the improvements he made on approach late in the year. He's a good fit for the course and finished 8th here in his only appearance (2022).
Good luck this week and Happy Holidays! I'll be back to break down The Sentry in January.
