Here's everything you need to know about Houston Open first-round leader picks for 2024 — our expert FRL bets for this week's PGA Tour event in Houston, Texas.
With the Valspar Championship in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's Houston Open. Memorial Park Golf Course hosts once again, which the Houston municipal course has done each season since 2020.
Memorial Park is a par-70, 7,432-yard track designed by John Bredemus and renovated by Tom Doak that presents a strong challenge and rewards those who can avoid mistakes and simply hit greens in regulation to keep them in contention.
Find my Houston Open first-round leader picks for 2024 below.
Houston Open First-Round Leader Picks 2024
As is always my strategy for targeting first-round leaders, I'm searching for golfers who tee off earlier in the day. The first wave almost always scores better than the second wave, which makes sense considering that the greens only firm up as the round progresses.
The earlier a golfer tees off, the more soft greens he faces that are much more receptive to his shots. The one objection to this general rule of thumb is when there is an expected weather change between the first and second waves, but that will not be the case on Thursday.
Aaron Rai +7000 (Caesars | 0.11 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 8:42 a.m. ET
That brings us to Aaron Rai, who tees off in the third of 24 groups on Thursday. There are actually 48 total groups, but the field goes off on split tees simultaneously. I want to utilize this opportunity to buy low on Rai after he missed the cut at last week's Valspar Championship by betting him to get back on track with a fast start on Thursday.
We must remember that, prior to that missed cut, Rai had three straight finishes inside the top 35. Memorial Park could absolutely be the venue to get back into form, considering he finished T19 in his first appearance here in 2021 and followed that up with a tie for seventh in 2022.
That same year, Rai finished T12 at Colonial Country Club in the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge, another course designed by Bredemus. These courses reward golfers who hit greens in regulation more than any other aspect of the game.
Therefore, it makes sense that Rai succeeds at these venues given that hitting greens is the strongest aspect of his game, ranking eighth on Tour in GIR%.
Scottie Scheffler +1200 (FanDuel | 0.17 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 8:53 a.m. ET
Scottie Scheffler tees off in the group immediately following Rai, and this is a way to back the tournament favorite at a much more appealing 12-1 price than his full-tournament 3-1 odds. I want to be involved with Scheffler in some capacity in case he does follow the odds and goes wire-to-wire with a dominant performance, but I can't justify backing anyone at 3-1 in a Tour event.
Scheffler is coming off back-to-back wins at THE PLAYERS Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational, two tournaments contested against much tougher fields than the one he goes against this week. We know he is the best ball-striker on the planet, but he has also gained True Strokes Putting in each of those two wins after switching to a mallet putter.
He gained more True Strokes Putting across those two wins than he had in his previous 15 tournaments combined. If this new putter is indeed the solution Scheffler has been looking for on the greens, then this Tour season is probably already over.
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Si Woo Kim +4500 (FanDuel | 0.14 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 1:53 a.m. ET
I'm going to break my normal "morning wave" preference for the first-round leader market and target Si Woo Kim for our final play on Thursday. Kim is just a high-floor golfer who is always worth a dart throw in any betting market, especially at 45-1.
He is one of the most accurate strikers of the golf ball on Tour, ranking 12th in GIR%. I keep mentioning hitting greens at Memorial Park, which has proven to be the key differentiator as each of the top-three finishers here last season ranked seventh or higher among the field in GIR%, the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred.
Kim also enters this week in great form, with nine straight weekend appearances and five top-25 finishes over that stretch, including his most recent tie for sixth at THE PLAYERS Championship against a much stronger field.
Here's my full betting card for the 2024 Houston Open, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks Best Bets podcast:
- Wyndham Clark Outright Winner (+1400 at BetMGM) – 0.36 Units
- Alex Noren Outright Winner (+4000 at FanDuel) – 0.33 Units
- Keith Mitchell Outright Winner (+4500 at FanDuel) – 0.3 Units
- Billy Horschel Outright Winner (+6000 at FanDuel) – 0.27 Units
- Victor Perez Top 10 (+900 at FanDuel) – 0.24 Units
- Rafael Campos Top 20 (+650 at FanDuel) – 0.20 Units
- Scottie Scheffler FRL (+1200 at FanDuel) – 0.17 Units
- Si Woo Kim FRL (+4500 at FanDuel) – 0.14 Units
- Aaron Rai FRL (+7000 at Caesars) – 0.11 Units
