LIV Golf returns for the first time in nearly a month with LIV Houston.
The league has done a great job of scheduling events around majors. Hopefully, this week will do a solid enough job prepping these golfer for next week's U.S. Open at Pinehurst. Spoiler alert, it will not.
Not only can very few American designs replicate Pinehurst No. 2, but the PGA Tour has the upper hand in terms of weekly prep. The Golf Club of Houston does not come close to touching Muirfield Village Golf Club in terms of tee-to-green prep.
Nonetheless, we have a golf tournament to handicap and money to win.
The Golf Club of Houston hosts a LIV Golf event for the first time this week and will play as a par 72 at over 7,500 yards. Rees Jones and David Toms designed this public golf course, which opened in 2005. This course has hosted multiple events across the years as the PGA Tour's Houston Open was held here until 2019.
Five LIV Golf competitors have won on this course in the past, including Paul Casey (2009), Anthony Kim (2010), Phil Mickelson (2011), Matt Jones (2014) and Ian Poulter (2018). This list of winners screams precise iron play, which will likely once again be the key to success this week at LIV Houston.
The winners at the Golf Club of Houston got it done by gaining strokes across the board, with an emphasis on iron play and putting. Although this course is long, birdies are out there. Golfers have gotten to -20 over four rounds in the Houston Open here, the winning score may be in the -14 to -16 range for LIV Houston this week.
Below, I will elaborate on some key stats and dive into which competitors fit the mold to win LIV Houston this weekend.
LIV Golf Houston Picks & Betting Preview
Key LIV Golf Houston Metrics
Green in Regulation Percentage
Golfers are going to need to make birdies this week, which means they will need to give themselves a ton of chances. Consequently, hitting greens in regulation at a high rate will be key at the Golf Club of Houston. Below are the leaders in Greens in Regulation Percentage on LIV Golf this season.
- Paul Casey (76.19%)
- Joaquin Niemann, Branden Grace (75.13%)
- Richard Bland, Dean Burmester (74.87%)
- Sergio Garcia, Brooks Koepka (74.34%)
Putting Average
Putting will be very important this week. Anytime a course yields a three-year run of Russell Henley gaining 14 strokes putting, Ian Poulter wining and Brian Harman winning, it's clear that golfers will need to roll the rock there to win!
- Cam Smith 1.51
- Louis Oosthuizen 1.53
- Tyrell Hatton, Matt Jones 1.54
- Lucas Herbert, Talor Gooch 1.55
LIV Golf Houston Picks
We have picked two winners season using the 7x ROI Card Construction Structure.
- LIV Vegas: Dustin Johnson +1600
- LIV Miami: Dean Burmester +3200
After chasing Jon Rahm (and losing) for a few weeks, I'm going back to putting together a normal card by emphasizing iron play with spike-putting ability to find a winner this week. Here are my LIV Golf Houston Picks.
Talor Gooch +1600
Talor Gooch's game is built around iron play, and his streaky putter also gives him upside. As funny as it sounds, Gooch was coined as "the best iron player of the last two decades" by none other than LIV Golf CEO Greg Norman. All jokes aside, Gooch is the best player on LIV Golf without a win this season other than Rahm.
Gooch played this event twice on the PGA Tour but notched a T4 finish in 2019. He enters with some form after he gained strokes both on approach and with the putter at the 2024 PGA Championship, although the rest of his game let him down. Out of all the LIV Golfers who played that event, no one putted the ball better than Gooch.
Carlos Ortiz +3000
Carlos Ortiz also has a T4 finish at the Golf Club of Houston in 2019 and is both streaky on approach and with the putter. Ortiz is yet to break through on LIV Golf but has faired very well in the few Asian Tour events he has played this season with a win and a tie for 10th.
He surely has winning equity, and I love him on a golf course like this one where distance is not a priority.
Sergio Garcia +4000
Sergio Garcia has been one of the best iron players throughout his entire career and in his LIV Golf career. He has nearly won three LIV Golf events in his tenure that ended up being playoff losses.
Garcia's iron's are his strength, although the putter is truly hit or miss. If we get him on a hot week, we're off to the races. Garcia never missed a cut when he played this event on the PGA Tour and has a tie for third. It is only a matter of time before he wins on LIV Golf, and it may very well be this week.
We cannot forget how solid this man has played in Texas in his career as he currently resides in Austin.
Sebastian Muñoz +6500
I wish Sebastian Muñoz would play a tad more conservative. You get all or nothing with him. So often he gets out to -7 starts and finishes the event around the same number.
If he can dial it back a tad by playing more conservatively and limiting mistakes, he can post a few rounds of three to five under and get into the mix.
