After cashing in on Dustin Johnson outright at +1600 at LIV Golf Vegas, Matt Gannon is back with his LIV Golf Jeddah Picks and Betting Preview.
LIV Golf Jeddah Betting Preview
The third tournament of LIV Golf's 2024 circuit has arrived at Royal Greens Golf & Country Club in Saudi Arabia. Brooks Koepka is the two-time defending champ at Royal Greens as he won in playoffs at -12 in 2022 and at -14 in 2023. Koepka is looking to become the first three-time defending champ and the first to reach four LIV Golf wins.
This is a fairly straightforward track which will play as a par-70 at just over 7,000 yards. The course's main defense is the wind as it's positioned directly east of the Red Sea. The early forecast suggests the wind will steadily blow around 10-15 miles per hour. That is not an insane amount of wind, but anytime the breeze is fresh off a body of water, it blows a tad harder than the number suggests.
Besides the two years of LIV Golf data, Royal Greens Golf & Country Club also hosted the Saudi International from 2019-2023. Dustin Johnson has won it twice, as well as Graeme McDowell (over Johnson), Harold Varner III and Abraham Ancer. All of those players are excellent with their irons.
Key LIV Golf Jeddah Metrics
Greens In Regulation
Iron play is the biggest key to success at Royal Greens. Averaging around four-under each day will require the golfers to pound greens consistently and roll a few putts in here and there. Let’s take a look at the players with the best Greens in Regulation (GIR) Percentage through the first two LIV events of 2024.
- 74.07%: Joaquin Niemann
- 73.15%: Paul Casey
- 72.22%: Jon Rahm
- 71.3%: Richard Bland, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Sergio Garcia and Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra
Niemann continues to play very solid golf and added another top-three finish to his resume this past week. Many LIV golfers played this past week on the Asian Tour's International Series Oman, where Niemann finished third, and Carlos Ortiz won at -19.
Paul Casey got out to an early lead at LIV Vegas but came down to earth over the weekend. He has been dealing with injuries recently but has stated that he's feeling better and needs to simply trust his golf swing.
Jon Rahm is still one of the best players in the world. It's crazy to see him this high in GIR Percentage even though he had four blatant shanks over the weekend in Vegas.
Birdie Percentage
With the winning scores each of the last two years both being lower than -12, making birdies will be very important this week. That is usually the case on LIV Golf, so let’s see who is the best at rolling in those birdie putts.
- 5.17 Birdies Per Round: Cam Smith, Dustin Johnson
- 4.83 Birdies Per Round: Caleb Surratt, Joaquin Niemann
- 4.67 Birdies Per Round: Jon Rahm, Sebastian Muñoz
Niemann and Rahm both pop in each of the two major categories this week. Niemann got the win in week one, so is it now time for Rahm to get his first LIV Golf win?
Cam Smith is always a threat and should fare well here. If he can make fewer bogeys, he can find himself in the conversation this weekend.
Caleb Surratt has also been a great story this season. The 20-year-old was a key factor for Legion XIII’s team win and also played well in Vegas.
LIV Golf Jeddah Outright Betting Picks
Jon Rahm +550
As much as I hate to bet the favorite, Rahm's inevitable win is around the corner. The reigning Masters champion will give us a sweat at the very least for this week's event and clearly has great win equity. He is hitting a ton of greens and making a ton of birdies without really even playing his best golf.
Rahm has looked extremely sharp for 90% of the holes he has played with LIV Golf, but a few big mistakes have cost him. He is still extremely competitive and has the drive to win. Betting Rahm at this number means it will be a single-bet week. Adding another name to the betting card really dwindles down the total return on investment for this event, so we'll go with the one-man betting card as we look to cash a second consecutive LIV Golf outright.
