If you've followed my articles in the past, you know I love digging around for longshots. I hit one last week after Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open, when I grabbed Corey Conners at 100-1.
But in golf, no two tournaments — and no two fields — are alike. An event like the Valero has been much more conducive to longshot winners than the Masters. Augusta National just doesn't cooperate with the Cinderella stories — at least not recently.
The last player to tee off at longer than 100-1 on Thursday and win was Zach Johnson in 2007. There were very tough weather conditions that year and it was also the only time since 1956 when the Masters winner finished over-par. Basically, it played far more like a U.S. Open than what we normally see from Augusta.
Winners usually have good form leading into the event, which hurts the longshots' chances as well. As guys start to play well, books will take notice and drop the numbers. So it's pretty rare we see someone who is playing well enough to win a major like this slip through the cracks.
But with all that said, I've still found one boom-or-bust player who presents value at his current odds of 125-1.
My Favorite Longshot Bet
In this range, I'm going with Si Woo Kim. I grabbed him last summer at 250-1 and he's still available at 125-1. With longshots, I'm not really concerned about consistency. It's far more important to me that they can beat an elite field if they're playing their best golf.
Si Woo is one of the few guys in this range we can say that about. He's got a Players Championship win under his belt, and he's also been in great form this year with three top-five finishes in his past six starts.
He's far more likely to miss the cut by five than really contend, but if Si Woo can duplicate some of the form we've seen this year, he's one of the few longshots who really has a chance. That alone makes him worth a wager.
Make sure to shop around for the best price, as the odds can differ drastically book-to-book.
