The Masters Tournament is nearly here, and outright odds are on the board. I’ve taken a first look at the longshots and sleeper picks with value and have found three golfers who are live to win at Augusta National with odds of 75-1 or longer.
Find my Masters Sleeper Picks & Longshots below.
2024 Masters Sleeper Picks & Longshots
Russell Henley 80-1 (DraftKings)
Russell Henley enters the Masters in some of the best form of his career, and his combination of Driving Accuracy, Approach play and putting upside gives him value at this 80-1 price to win at Augusta National.
In his 12 starts since The Open, Henley has seven top-14 finishes, including top-four finishes in 2024 at the Sony Open in Hawaii and Arnold Palmer Invitational.
While Henley isn’t the longest off the tee, he is strong everywhere else throughout the bag. He ranks 33rd or better on Tour in Driving Accuracy, Strokes Gained (SG): Around the Green and SG: Putting.
Henley’s Approach play has been below his standard to start this season, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on Approach because he has ranked among the top 18 in SG: Approach each of the past four years on Tour.
While Henley’s Driving Accuracy, Around the Green game and Approach play have historically been the strengths of his game, Henley’s putter has not always been a positive. However, Henley is 30th on Tour in SG: Putting this season at +0.440 SG per round, which is his best SG: Putting value on Tour since 2015.
Henley should also enter Augusta National with confidence after his career-best tie for fourth here last year. In his last six starts at the Masters Tournament, the Georgia Bulldog has finished no worse than 31st, so his game clearly suits Augusta National.
Henley got one more tune-up at the Valero Texas Open and finished in solo fourth place after he was second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round, as he gained more than two shots to the field per round in his first tournament since missing the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship. His missed cut at THE PLAYERS isn’t concerning given the tournament’s volatility.
This is a fair price on Henley at 80-1, and I wouldn’t bet him any shorter than 75-1.
Patrick Reed 75-1 (bet365)
I’ll stick with the Georgia theme here and go with a former champion whose odds are very generous. Reed won the Masters in 2018 and has finished in the top 10 in three of five tries since.
With Augusta National Golf Club’s course history being one of the most predictive of future success on the golf calendar, it’s no surprise that 17 players have put the green jacket on more than once.
Like Henley, Reed isn’t long off the tee, but he makes up for that with a world-class short game, strong putting and driving accuracy.
Although Strokes Gained data at the Masters only goes back three tournaments to 2021, each year SG: Around the Green has been significantly more correlated with SG: Total at Augusta National compared to an average course on the PGA Tour. On a per-round basis, all three winners since 2021 have thrived around the greens: Rahm SG: Around the Green +0.88 (2023), Scheffler SG: ARG +1.53 (2022) and Matsuyama SG: ARG +1.48 (2021).
Reed never finished outside the top 30 in SG: ARG while a part of the PGA Tour and his comfortability with the golf course should provide him a good chance to win.
While Reed got off to a slow start on LIV Golf this season, failing to crack the top 16 in any of the four events, he did just flash some form by finishing fourth at the Asian Tour event International Series Macau and in a tie for ninth this past weekend at LIV Miami.
Nick Taylor 250-1 (FanDuel)
Nick Taylor has an abysmal career record in majors, but he has value at 250-1 to win the Masters because of his approach play and elite putting. In 10 major championship starts, he has six missed cuts. He has only played in the Masters one time – in the COVID-delayed November Masters where he finished in a tie for 29th.
However, Wyndham Clark also had no finish better than a T75 in six major championship starts before he won the U.S. Open last June.
Like Clark, Taylor has taken his golf game to another level over the past year. He won his third PGA Tour event at the RBC Canadian Open in June and won his fourth earlier this season at the WM Phoenix Open. Both events went to a playoff, and Taylor rolled in clutch putts in both.
Regardless of past history in majors, Taylor knows how to win when the going gets tough, and he has learned how to win in big moments. Both skills are required at Augusta.
Taylor enters in great form for both approach play and putting as he ranks among the top 15 on Tour in both SG: Approach and Putting. He has gained strokes on approach in each of his last 10 tournaments and can get white hot with the putter, as he showed in Phoenix.
Nick Taylor's +7.2 strokes-gained putting in round 1 is the 5th best putting round since 2004. pic.twitter.com/hFEp8uZ9rs
— data golf (@DataGolf) February 9, 2024
Taylor has gained strokes putting in seven of nine tournaments this season, and putting will always be the ultimate equalizer in any tournament.
