Masters Sunday Best Bets: Round 4 Expert Picks, Score & Odds

Masters Sunday Best Bets

Masters Sunday Best Bets & Expert Pics

Spencer Aguiar: Matt Fitzpatrick -130 Over Patrick Reed (DraftKings)

Since Matt Fitzpatrick took a weight out of the top of his driver (which was causing him to over-rotate the club and pull shots), he has shown meaningful improvement off the tee. While he has noted a few issues with a couple of short irons per round not spinning as much as he would like them to this week, Sunday is a favorable spot to back him against Patrick Reed, even at the -130 juice.

Reed remains the biggest overachiever in my model through three rounds at the Masters and likely will close 30+ points higher than this when the market pushes us up the board.

After adding in his baseline short-game metrics to his actual ball-striking, the 2018 Masters winner is overachieving my model's baseline score this week by 7.6 shots. Furthermore, this data is underrating his skills, but even if I used his totals from 2018 when he won at Augusta, he still has exhibited a 5.85-shot overachievement on the greens.

This presents trouble heading into the final round since Reed has lost 2.55 strokes to the field off the tee.

Fitzpatrick's numbers aren't perfect because of his own 2.65-shot discrepancy. Nonetheless, it's significant that Fitzpatrick was a favorite in matchups on Sunday at other shops against Tyrrell Hatton and Will Zalatoris, while Reed was an underdog to Byeong Hun An, Adam Scott and Cameron Smith.

That return only gives me a small percentage of my calculated weight, but Fitzpatrick beating two top-20 golfers in the market at a similar price did shift this into a 3.5% edge for the final round.

Without that boost, consider this a fringe bet that barely would have met my usual 3% threshold to recommend a wager.

Masters Round 4 Data-Driven PickRead now

Matt Gannon: Cam Davis Top 10 +105 (bet365)

I'm doubling down on my best bet from before the tournament of Cam Davis to finish in the top 10 at +1400. Luckily, the books are still offering plus money on Davis, who sits in a tie for sixth at 2-under.

The Australian's approach play has been phenomenal to this point as he is 15th in the field with 0.89 Strokes Gained: Approach per round. He has dialed it back a bit more than I expected off the tee, but this has been successful because he has hit 81% of his fairways this week, which ranks 11th in the field. This has kept him out of trouble and allowed him to card a ton of stress-free pars. At Augusta National, stress free pars are the name of the game.

I expect him to take a few more chances tomorrow because he has an outside chance to win the whole thing at just five strokes behind the leader, Scottie Scheffler. Davis is extremely talented and checks a ton of boxes around Augusta as a golfer without many weaknesses who has a strong short game, can bomb it off the tee and has upside on approach play.

Master Sunday Scores & Odds

For more on Masters odds, market movements and the latest information from oddsmakers/risk supervisors, check out Patrick Everson's Masters Odds and Betting Trends article on Vegas Insider.

Odds via bet365.