It's Wednesday night before the first golf major in over a year. That means it's time for bettors to get some wagers in and for DFS players to build those lineups.
So where does this field stand? What golfers are trending up or down in the betting market? Which are seeing sharp movement?
Let's dive in and highlight 10 golfers in each category ahead of tomorrow's opening round of the PGA Championship.
Golfers Trending Up in Betting Market
- Justin Thomas: +900 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Rory McIlroy: +1500 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Jon Rahm: +1500 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Xander Schauffele: +1800 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Collin Morikawa: +3300 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Jason Day: +3500 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Matthew Fitzpatrick: +3500 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Paul Casey: +12500 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Byeong Hun An: +17500 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello: +50000 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
Listed above are 10 golfers who have seen positive sharp movement in the market but who may still be available at good prices at some books.
If you notice a trend here, you'll find the golfers who have the best all-around games in the world. Rory, JT, Xander, Rahm, Day and Morikawa especially — all of these guys have almost no weaknesses. They hit it long and straight, they are elite ball-strikers and they have the short game to bring it home.
Jason Sobel wrote about how TPC Harding Park will be a "big-boy golf course," which could mean that these golfers who just have no holes will really excel. Sharp bettors seem to be buying this archetype rather than specialists.
The biggest movement this week has been with Rory, who has moved even down below 10/1 at some books. He's been the least inspiring of all the top guys since the COVID-19 return to golf, but apparently some bettors are betting on a return to form in San Francisco this week.
Case in point: At some books, Rory has moved to become a significant favorite against his high-priced peers like Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau. Likewise, someone like Morikawa has seen his price grow in head-to-head matchups against mid-tier peers like Tiger Woods.
Thomas didn't have much room to move — he was already the pre-tournament favorite — but he's indeed seen some sharp action at books.
Remember: It's very important, in especially in golf markets, to line shop across books. While guys like Brooks Koepka, Tyrrell Hatton and Tony Finau didn't exactly see strong movement this week, there are some books that are listing quite low numbers on them, which makes them more +EV bets naturally.
Golfers Trending Down in Betting Market
- Bryson DeChambeau: +1500 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Dustin Johnson: +2300 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Gary Woodland: +5000 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Sergio Garcia: +7000 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Kevin Na: +9000 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Phil Mickelson: +9000 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Marc Leishman: +9500 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Brendon Todd: +10000 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Bubba Watson: +12500 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
- Kevin Streelman: +12500 on DraftKings [BET NOW]
Listed above are 10 golfers who have seen negative movement this week or are just generally overvalued at a variety of books.
As mentioned above, both Bryson and DJ are now significant underdogs in head-to-head matchups against Rory as some books, highlighting both his movement up but also bettors potentially fading them in lieu of other golfers in that tippy-top tier.
Other golfers who are getting "sold" a bit include ones like Kevin Na, Sergio Garcia, Marc Leishman and Kevin Streelman, who are more ball-striking specialists than all-around golfers who can really gain an advantage with distance.
And of course, a lot of sharp bettors will often fade the big names like Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson and even Tiger Woods, who apparently is getting hammered at FanDuel by bettors.
From FanDuel: "Tiger Woods is the most popular golfer To Miss the Cut by a considerable margin. 69% of all bets on this market are on Tiger. Odds +164 currently."
Of course, the majority of bets overall have come in on Tiger at FanDuel, so the public isn't off of him completely. He's a polarizing figure, especially in the betting world, so that's not a complete surprise.
