PGA Tour 2024 One and Done Picks
With the PGA Tour season starting this week, it’s time to start planning out your selections for One and Done pools – or OADs, as longtime participants already know.
For those jumping into the OAD world for the first time, here’s the CliffNotes version of how it works:
Pick a player for each PGA Tour event, none more than once, and you earn what they earn on the course, with the final tally determining season-long winners. There are plenty of differing variations to this – some pools require two players at each tournament, or maybe just the bigger ones; some insist that all selections are made at the beginning of the season, others allow you to choose each week; some use full earnings to determine standings, while others might pro-rate the money or even go with FedEx Cup points.
Even those familiar with each of these formats, though, should be going back to the drawing board a bit this year.
With all of the shake-ups in the world of professional golf, the PGA Tour schedule should have a greater delineation between the haves and have-nots than ever before. The best of the best will not only compete alongside each other in the major championships, The Players and three FedEx Cup playoff events, but in eight signature tournaments, as well – The Sentry, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Genesis Invitational, Arnold Palmer Invitational, RBC Heritage, Wells Fargo Championship, Memorial Tournament and Travelers Championship.
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One negative is that it’ll be tough to discern when (or if) the elite players will tee it up other than these 16 events. A positive, though, is that the new schedule should essentially strengthen the rest of the events, as those not qualified for the biggest tournaments will need the playing opportunities.
As I said, there’s plenty to ponder when making picks.
There are plenty of differing rules for playing OADs, which leads to my first rule for those who are just now getting involved: Know the rules. If your pool offers, say, double the points for all signature events, you should plan to slot the best players into those events. If there’s no bonus for the majors, don’t feel like you need to use the best players there.
As for other rules – or at least suggestions – I wrote the following recommendations a few years ago and haven’t found a reason to not keep consulting with these, so here they are again.
Give yourself a chance: There’s nothing worse than taking a DNS, watching your player’s name never show up on the entry list while your fellow pool competitors wave to you from the passing lane. That’s inexcusable if you make picks weekly, but largely avoidable even if you make all picks prior to the first event. You’ll always endure some MCs, but do some research and pick guys who should at least show up.
Nobody is Nostradamus: Don’t get too discouraged. You might start out in DFL on your pool’s leaderboard after the West Coast Swing, but things can change in a hurry. While somebody might peel off a few early wins, it’s difficult to maintain consistency in these pools. Just like a pro who shoots 78 in the first round, keep your head up and stay positive.
Don’t overrate the majors: I used to break this rule every year. They’re the four biggest tournaments, I’d reason, so I should pick four of the best players. Sure, there’s more money available at the majors, but how often do we see chalk anyway?
Don’t be afraid to get a little contrarian: For example, you might like Rory McIlroy at the Masters, but really like him at the Wells Fargo Championship, which he’s won three times. Chances are, you’ll get a player with tremendous win equity and own some leverage over your competition, who will largely save him for a bigger event.
Remember the young 'uns: This always happens: A month into the calendar, an up-and-comer will have posted three top 10s and you’ll be kicking yourself for leaving him off your final list. It’s impossible to predict how every Korn Ferry Tour promotion will perform, but don’t get so locked into past results that you forget to include guys like Chris Gotterup or Rico Hoey on your list.
Play some hunches: You know that thing I just said about history not always repeating itself? Sure, there are times when you look at a player’s recent results at an event, see he finished 2nd-5th-3rd the last three years, and lock him in. Nothing wrong with that. But don’t fall into the trap of thinking that just because a player was in the top five the previous year, he’ll easily do it again. In particular, I like looking for outlier scores. If you notice a player finished 29th at a tourney with three rounds of 68 and a third-round 79, there’s a good chance that course fits his eye and he simply had one bad day.
OK, that’s enough general advice for now. Let’s get our hands a little dirty.
For this article, I’ve included three potential selections at every PGA Tour stop:
- Old Reliable (OR): A player who traditionally fares well at that given event.
- Course Horse (CH): A player whose game should match up with the host venue.
- Wild Card (WC): A player whom I particularly like at a specific event, whether because of an underlying narrative, a home-field advantage or just as a “hunchy” play.
Here are my picks, based on a standard OAD league (which means no defending champions included):
*Signature event; **Alternate event
The Sentry* (Jan. 4-7)
Defending champion: Jon Rahm
- OR: Xander Schauffele
- CH: Rickie Fowler
- WC: Cam Davis
For years, there have been two disparate strategies for the year-opener: Either take a big-name player who owns better win equity than usual in a smaller field, or take a player further down the list who’s guaranteed a paycheck in this no-cut event. Well, now that there are seven other signature events which largely mirror this one, we’ll be weighing those options more often, though the elevated purses make it difficult to go for a complete longshot at these.
READ MORE: Sobel's Best Bets for The Sentry
Sony Open (Jan. 11-14)
Defending champion: Si Woo Kim
- OR: Russell Henley
- CH: Corey Conners
- WC: Chris Kirk
My thought process on this one – whether it’s for OADs, betting, DFS or any other predictive element – is to pick those players who already had a week to shake off the cobwebs at Kapalua. Even though Waialae is night and day from the Plantation Course, everything from dialing in new clubs to getting adjusted to the time zone suggests there’s an edge to those who played the previous week.
The American Express (Jan. 18-21)
Defending champion: Jon Rahm
- OR: Andrew Putnam
- CH: Taylor Montgomery
- WC: Garrick Higgo
Every winner since this changed from a five-round event to four rounds in 2012 has posted a score of at least 20-under, with the last five champions all reaching 23-under. I like going with talented putters and guys who can make birdies in bunches.
Farmers Insurance Open (Jan. 24-27)
Defending champion: Max Homa
- OR: Tony Finau
- CH: Jason Day
- WC: Justin Suh
There are certain players who annually show up on these early-year leaderboards, though it has little to do with outworking the competition in the offseason. Success on the West Coast Swing is fairly predictive, so don’t get too cute and pick those over the first two months who rarely find it. Personally, I’ve taken Tony Finau at Torrey Pines for as long as I can remember and though he’s yet to win, he does have five top-10s and seven top-20s in his last eight appearances.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am* (Feb. 1-4)
Defending champion: Justin Rose
- OR: Jordan Spieth
- CH: Beau Hossler
- WC: J.J. Spaun
Now a signature event for the first time, it’ll be nice to have one of golf’s most beautiful vistas be a venue for more stars than just the celebs. Cross-referencing a list of the game’s big talents and those who play Pebble Beach each year won’t yield many results, so don’t be surprised to see many of the same names throughout your OAD.
WM Phoenix Open (Feb. 8-11)
Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
- OR: Hideki Matsuyama
- CH: Justin Thomas
- WC: Sam Ryder
Be careful here, as well: While Pebble is now a signature event, Phoenix is not. That won’t kill the vibe whatsoever, but sandwiched between some must-play tournaments, don’t be surprised if a few of the superstars sit this one out.
The Genesis Invitational* (Feb. 15-18)
Defending champion: Jon Rahm
- OR: Max Homa
- CH: Collin Morikawa
- WC: Sahith Theegala
I mentioned this earlier, but it’s worth repeating: If there’s a guy you love for Riviera, but want to save for a major championship, make sure you know your OAD’s rules. If there’s an extra bonus or multiplied points at the majors, that makes sense, but otherwise the game’s biggest tournaments don’t have any greater value than the big-money signature events for the purposes of your pool.
Mexico Open at Vidanta (Feb. 22-25)
Defending champion: Tony Finau
- OR: Patrick Rodgers
- CH: Akshay Bhatia
- WC: Austin Smotherman
If you only scratch the surface on your research, you’ll notice that Jon Rahm and Tony Finau have won the first two PGA Tour editions of this event, but look beyond those names and you’ll find that this one is largely devoid of stars.
Cognizant Classic (Feb. 29-March 3)
Defending champion: Chris Kirk
- OR: Sepp Straka
- CH: Shane Lowry
- WC: Eric Cole
New name, same date and venue, as Honda relinquishes title sponsorship to Cognizant. This one kicks off a two-week swing of difficult golf, so keep a good wind player in mind at PGA National, where it always seems like there’s a two-club breeze.
Arnold Palmer Invitational* (March 7-10)
Defending champion: Kurt Kitayama
- OR: Tyrrell Hatton
- CH: Viktor Hovland
- WC: Matt Fitzpatrick
To refer to the annual festivities at Bay Hill as Florida’s U.S. Open might be an understatement, as scoring has often more difficult at Arnie’s place in recent years. I suggest favoring those who fare best when the score is closer in relation to par, which is one reason I’ve always believed Fitzpatrick (six top-15 finishes in his last seven starts here) will someday win this tournament.
Puerto Rico Open** (March 7-10)
Defending champion: Nico Echavarria
- OR: Nate Lashley
- CH: Chris Gotterup
- WC: Harry Hall
The first of just four opposite-field events on the 2024 calendar, this is a great spot for picking a journeyman or rookie you’ve been keeping an eye on. These tournaments aren’t worth as much as other events, so my advice is to go big here. Rather than perusing last year’s leaderboard and selecting a guy who played well, use these tourneys to take a chance on someone with plenty of upside.
The Players Championship (March 14-17)
Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
- OR: Tyrrell Hatton
- CH: Min Woo Lee
- WC: Cam Davis
For my money, this is the toughest tournament of the year to handicap. What makes it great from a spectator perspective – this title has been won by long and short hitters, ball-strikers and great putters, old veterans and young rookies – is what makes it so difficult. Best advice for those who select OAD picks on a weekly basis is to go with the hot hand once we get there.
Valspar Championship (March 21-24)
Defending champion: Taylor Moore
- OR: Sam Burns
- CH: Adam Schenk
- WC: Davis Riley
Now that Burns is eligible once again after his two-year run as champion came to a halt, he’ll be a popular play amongst the masses. Which leads to some OAD game theory: If you’re leading the pool, taking the obvious player makes some sense; if you’re playing catch-up, though, it’ll pay to get a little contrarian.
Texas Children’s Houston Open (March 28-31)
Defending champion: Tony Finau
- OR: Beau Hossler
- CH: Keith Mitchell
- WC: Cameron Champ
Even though the last edition of this tournament was played a year-and-a-half prior to this one, I’m guessing the same rules apply here in most pools, which means you can’t pick defending champion Tony Finau. You will, however, want to favor those who similarly pop in the off-the-tee categories.
Valero Texas Open (April 4-7)
Defending champion: Corey Conners
- OR: Matt Kuchar
- CH: Sam Ryder
- WC: Hayden Buckley
Considered the Willy Wonka’s Chocolate Factory of professional golf, this event offers one final golden ticket to get into the next week’s Masters Tournament. For that motivational reason alone, I prefer the idea of playing the narrative and picking players who aren’t already qualified.
Masters Tournament (April 11-14)
Defending champion: Jon Rahm
- OR: Brooks Koepka
- CH: Cameron Smith
- WC: Ludvig Aberg
As you’ll hear endlessly in the run-up to the annual festivities at Augusta National, this will be the first time in nine months where PGA Tour players and LIV Golf regulars will compete alongside each other. While I do understand wanting to use LIV players at the only four places they’ll be available (unless there’s a PGA Tour/PIF deal before then which states otherwise), my suggestion is to not sacrifice a guy you really like, just to squeeze in a LIV player.
RBC Heritage* (April 18-21)
Defending champion: Matt Fitzpatrick
- OR: Jordan Spieth
- CH: Brian Harman
- WC: Brendon Todd
Many of the game’s studs might not be overly excited to have a signature event one week after the year’s first major, but it’ll be fun once again to separate the bombers from the ball-strikers at Harbour Town, where precision reigns over power.
Corales Puntacana Championship** (April 18-21)
Defending champion: Matt Wallace
- OR: Thomas Detry
- CH: Sam Stevens
- WC: Austin Eckroat
As mentioned earlier, don’t be surprised if fields for these alternate events suddenly look much stronger than ever before. For the next tier of players who haven’t yet qualified for signature tournaments, these represent a massive opportunity to earn some of those rich-get-richer spoils.
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (April 25-28)
Defending champions: Davis Riley/Nick Hardy
- OR: Billy Horschel
- CH: Ryan Palmer
- WC: Vincent Norrman
No tournament befuddles OAD commissioners like the two-man Zurich. I’ve played in pools which have a massive fantasy football-style draft (too much work) and those which skip this one altogether (that’s no fun), but the most popular compromise is to pick a player and you get his partner, too, which means there’s value in figuring out who might convince a superstar pal to play with him for the week.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2-5)
Defending champion: Jason Day
- OR: K.H. Lee
- CH: Tom Hoge
- WC: Seamus Power
Much like Burns at the Valspar, K.H. Lee’s two-year reign ended, which means he’ll be the quick-and-easy selection for those who place an emphasis on course history.
Wells Fargo Championship* (May 9-12)
Defending champion: Wyndham Clark
- OR: Rory McIlroy
- CH: Xander Schauffele
- WC: Denny McCarthy
If you’re deep-diving into analytics and researching course history at Quail Hollow, don’t forget to include the 2017 PGA Championship and 2022 Presidents Cup in there, as well.
Myrtle Beach Classic** (May 9-12)
- OR: Ben Kohles
- CH: Grayson Murray
- WC: Greyson Sigg
Ah, we’re speaking my language now. Not only an alternate-field event, but one which has never before been contested. That’s the good stuff right there. Tell your OAD commish to raise the stakes and make this a 10x point total.
PGA Championship (May 16-19)
Defending champion: Brooks Koepka
- OR: Scottie Scheffler
- CH: Rory McIlroy
- WC: Cameron Young
Back at Valhalla Golf Club for the first time in a decade, when Rory McIlroy defeated Phil Mickelson, Rickie Fowler and Henrik Stenson in the gloaming, expect a no-nonsense golf course which requires all aspects of a player’s game firing on all cylinders. If you’re hoping for a longshot major champion again this year, this might not be the place for it.
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 23-26)
Defending champion: Emiliano Grillo
- OR: Scottie Scheffler
- CH: Kevin Kisner
- WC: Mark Hubbard
Every year, the PGA Tour gets to Colonial and we collectively wonder why they aren’t more courses being built like this – short, tight, devilish tracks which require a strong measure of ball-striking. Take a chance on your favorite second-tier iron player who can grind out pars, as the winning score hasn’t reached double-digit figures in the red in two years.
RBC Canadian Open (May 30-June 2)
Defending champion: Nick Taylor
- OR: Adam Hadwin
- CH: Mackenzie Hughes
- WC: Taylor Pendrith
One year after Nick Taylor broke the 69-year drought of Canadians failing to win their national open, let’s go all-in on his countrymen – especially with the upcoming Presidents Cup at Royal Montreal and so many of them vying to make the International team.
The Memorial Tournament* (June 6-9)
Defending champion: Viktor Hovland
- OR: Patrick Cantlay
- CH: Adam Scott
- WC: Wyndham Clark
The first of three consecutive weeks where we’ll see all of the PGA Tour’s biggest names, I’d suggest reviewing other relevant three-week stretches to conclude which players prefer to ease into these events and which ones are prone to stepping on the gas pedal immediately.
U.S. Open (June 13-16)
Defending champion: Wyndham Clark
- OR: Brooks Koepka
- CH: Max Homa
- WC: Russell Henley
Over the past decade, the U.S. Open has transformed from a major where the fairways-and-greens guys could succeed to one which plays into the hands of the big boys. Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Gary Woodland, Wyndham Clark – all big, strong dudes who hit it a long way. Even Matt Fitzpatrick gained speed and fit the profile. This year, though, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to suggest that Pinehurst No. 2 will require more creativity and therefore have a bigger pool of potential contenders.
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Travelers Championship* (June 20-23)
Defending champion: Keegan Bradley
- OR: Patrick Cantlay
- CH: Harris English
- WC: Eric Cole
Just as I wrote above for the Memorial Tournament, only in reverse. Try to identify those players who tend to gear up for the back end of a three-week stretch. And for those making OAD selections on a weekly basis, I know it’s tempting to go with the hot hand, but I’d largely fade those who seriously contended in the pressure cooker of the previous week’s U.S. Open.
Rocket Mortgage Classic (June 27-30)
Defending champion: Rickie Fowler
- OR: Stephan Jaeger
- CH: Cameron Champ
- WC: Justin Lower
Last year’s edition of this event didn’t quite fit the previous profile, as Rickie Fowler defeated Collin Morikawa and Adam Hadwin in a playoff, but prior iterations of this young tournament tended to prove that distance off the tee was a massive advantage.
John Deere Classic (July 4-7)
Defending champion: Sepp Straka
- OR: Michael Kim
- CH: Peter Kuest
- WC: Maverick McNealy
Over the past three years, each winner – Lucas Glover, J.T. Poston and Sepp Straka – has posted a score between 19- and 21-under par, while owning some similarities in that they’d already won PGA Tour titles and hardly surprised anyone by doing so again.
Genesis Scottish Open (July 11-14)
Defending champion: Rory McIlroy
- OR: Shane Lowry
- CH: Robert Macintyre
- WC: Ryan Fox
Even as more Americans have made the trip aboard a week earlier in recent years, there are still only three who have won it since the turn of the century – Phil Mickelson (2013), Rickie Fowler (2015) and Xander Schauffele (2022). This always feels like a great spot for an international player who’s enjoyed success on links courses in the past.
The Open Championship (July 18-21)
Defending champion: Brian Harman
- OR: Rory McIlroy
- CH: Viktor Hovland
- WC: Tommy Fleetwood
Returning to Royal Troon for the first time since 2016, it’s difficult to glean much info from a tournament where Henrik Stenson beat Phil Mickelson by three strokes and nobody else was closer than 14 to the winner. Perhaps the one thing we did learn is that great golf can obviously be rewarded at this venerable track, but anything less than a player’s A-plus game and it appears tragically difficult.
Barracuda Championship** (July 18-21)
Defending champion: Akshay Bhatia
- OR: Erik Van Rooyen
- CH: Mark Hubbard
- WC: Rico Hoey
Our final of the four alternate events, this one employs a Modified Stableford format, which means we should seek those who are accustomed to playing an aggressive style of golf.
3M Open (July 25-28)
Defending champion: Lee Hodges
- OR: Keith Mitchell
- CH: Cam Davis
- WC: Callum Tarren
I’ll reiterate this point from earlier: Game theory should play a major part in your selections as we reach the end of the schedule. You might really like whomever is the field favorite entering the 3M, but guess what? So will everyone else. If you’re already in first place and cruising, that’s fine. But if you’re trying to pass some people, you’ll need to get a little different.
Olympic Men’s Golf Competition (Aug. 1-4)
Defending champion: Xander Schauffele (2021)
- OR: Tommy Fleetwood
- CH: Sungjae Im
- WC: Adrian Meronk
Much like the Zurich, consult your commish on how this one is being handled. A few of my OADs, it seems, are completely skipping the Olympics, which seems a shame. For those who are making picks, this one will be held at Le Golf National, which hosted the Ryder Cup in 2018 – and where, uh, let’s just say the European players faired a bit better than the Americans.
Wyndham Championship (Aug. 8-11)
Defending champion: Lucas Glover
- OR: Webb Simpson
- CH: J.T. Poston
- WC: Alex Smalley
Consider this one the last-chance saloon for those players hoping to get into the playoffs. From Arjun Atwal to Jim Herman, we’ve seen some crazy longshots win here, so again, don’t be afraid to take a chance.
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug. 15-18)
Defending champion: Lucas Glover
- OR: Sungjae Im
- CH: Tom Kim
- WC: Taylor Moore
As someone who enjoys ripping open the entire pack of Starburst and wolfing down the preferred pink ones first, I understand the idea behind not saving the best for last, but trust me: You’ll be kicking yourself if you use every PGA Tour star for the majors and signature events, then have to scrape and claw to find decent options for the three FedEx Cup playoff events.
BMW Championship (Aug. 22-25)
Defending champion: Viktor Hovland
- OR: Patrick Cantlay
- CH: Wyndham Clark
- WC: Keegan Bradley
For the first time in nearly two decades, the PGA Tour will return to Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado. There won’t be much to glean from an historical perspective, but expect tee shots to soar unheard-of numbers in the thin air and plenty of low scores on the board.
Tour Championship (Aug. 29-Sept. 1)
Defending champion: Viktor Hovland
- OR: Rory McIlroy
- CH: Scottie Scheffler
- WC: Collin Morikawa
It’s a very delicate dance we must do each year: Save a player or two who are viable options for the season finale, without leaving too many on the table who go unused. Even though a million things will change throughout the year – players we thought we’d crush it will fail; guys we didn’t see coming will succeed – it’s smart to at least keep a running blueprint of your OAD selections throughout. There’s nothing worse than being in contention to win your pool and having to play someone mired in 23rd on the points list before the last one. Trust me on this.
*Signature event; **Alternate event
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