Two rounds of golf are complete from Hamilton Golf and Country Club. Going into the week, we had such a small sample size of information, so no one was exactly sure what to expect. Canada … what a golf course!
Truthfully, this is one of the better designs we have seen on the PGA Tour this season. Great shots are rewarded and slight misses are penalized hard. If a golfer is off with their tee shot, good luck getting back on track from this thick rough. Also, the new green complexes are amazing. They are small and undulating, but the subtle run offs are proving to be very difficult. As we know, tight cut grass is far tougher to chip from than thick, fluffy rough. Hamilton does a great job of incorporating both around the new greens.
This design has created a ton of volatility on the leaderboard. Some big names haven't fared well, some chalk has died and we have a great weekend coming up. Below, we will take a look at both the leaderboard and odds board. We will see how the top players are succeeding and use that information to find some information to cash tickets on Sunday afternoon. Here are my RBC Canadian Open Round 3 best bets.
Leaderboard (Outright Odds):
Robert MacIntyre -10 (+320)
Ryan Fox -10 (+360)
Joel Dahmen -8 (+1400)
Andrew Novak -7 (+1600)
Mackenzie Hughes -7 (+750)
David Skinns -7 (+2500)
Best Bets:
Rory McIlroy Top 10 (+110)
McIlroy is truly committing to the bomb-and-gouge strategy off the tee. I have been adamant all week about how I don't expect that to work this week. The thick and wet rough, paired with the small and undulating greens, makes that strategy a tough ask. On the flip side, it looks like the weather will be alright over the weekend. That will allow the rough to dry out and give the bomb-and-gouge golfers a chance. We know McIlroy has a low round in him and I can see that coming over the next two days. He always has it going in Canada and does have a 61 on this course. I'm not sure he will have enough in the tank to pull out a super high end finish, but this is a solid number for the best player in the field to back door a top 10.
Sam Burns Top 5 (+165)
Burns got his bad round out of the way in Round 2. When you take a closer look at those stats, you will see that the struggles were all with the putter. Burns hit the ball well, but his best weapon let him down. He is known as one of the best putters on the PGA Tour and that was there in Round 1, but completely flipped in Round 2. I expect Burns to keep hitting solid shots and believe the putter will catch up. Looking at this leaderboard, it is a ton of unproven golfers, outside of Burns. He knows how to handle the weekend nerves and I fully expect him to be in the conversation this weekend. That makes the top five a no brainer. I loved his course fit heading into the week and that's proving to be a great call. Burns loves these club down tracks with moderate scoring. Add him to your RBC Heritage Weekend betting card.
Ryo Hisatsune Top 20 (+270)
Hisatsune has been a top-20 machine on these types of courses. He is gaining nearly two strokes on approach through two rounds, which is solid, but he has more in the tank. Clean cards with a few birdies tell me he's leaving a lot out there and the stats are backing it up. He is subtly losing strokes putting, which is technically due to positively regression. Hisatsune isn't the best putter, so it's not a lock for him to roll more putts, but the ball striking should be enough. Hisatsune has the ceiling to post a super low round, which would be huge for this bet. He should have no problem finishing inside the top 20 this week and cashing us a nice ticket on Sunday.
