There is nothing in this world like a golf gamble.
I've sweat big betting tickets on March Madness, the College Football Playoff and Royals World Series runs, but nothing can beat having money shot-to-shot on Jordan Spieth.
Last week, the PGA Tour returned at Colonial and brought those feelings back as my Spieth matchup and Top 20 bets felt like a roller coaster.
Birdie, Bogey, Double bogey…
Just part of the Spieth 🎢pic.twitter.com/RjH6Gx3AyQ
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) June 12, 2020
The biggest news was the showdown between Daniel Berger, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and the 17th cup. Generally, the Colonial is played Memorial Day weekend while the RBC Heritage is played just after the Masters.
Because of COVID-19 we get these two courses back to back, a plus to our betting notes as strokes gained tee-to-green and approach the green still apply.
Harbour Town Golf Links is not a bomber's course, running 7,099 yards of narrow tree-lined fairways followed by small Bermuda grass greens. Just like Colonial, precision will determine the winner of a loaded field that includes 114 former PGA event winners.
With oak and palmetto trees providing protection to almost every green, our focus in this article will be strokes gained in tee-to-green and on approach. Course history is important, but one of the larger betting angles at this event is missing from this year.
There will be no Masters hangover, which has generally been free money in previous visits to Harbour Town.
Here's what I'm betting so far.
Jason Kokrak Top 20 +315
The pride of Xavier University was primarily known as a bomber, ranking top 20 in driving distance since the beginning of 2019. Kokrak finished tied for third at Colonial, but surprisingly it was not his driver that got him within a shot of the lead.
He finished No. 8 in strokes gained tee-to-green, improving to top 20 overall since the start of the 2019. Kokrak has also finished top 20 in four of the past six events at Harbour Town.
You can get Kokrak north of +300 at bet365 in New Jersey.
Tyrrell Hatton (-122) & Tony Finau (+105) vs. Rickie Fowler
Call this section the "Split Unit Fade" of one of my favorite golfers, Rickie Fowler.
Plenty has been made of a new swing to start the year, followed by a quarantine tweak. Fowler has not played this course since 2012, and has three missed cuts in four total events. The Heritage requires accuracy, and Fowler posted a negative in every strokes gained category at the Colonial.
The Oklahoma State product is currently 82nd in strokes gained tee-to-green on the year, a stark contrast to Tyrrell Hatton who is No. 1 in that category, despite fewer rounds due to a wrist injury.
Another player ranking in the top 10 for strokes gained tee-to-green on the 2020 year is Tony Finau. He was steady at Colonial, posting a sub-70 every round.
It is impossible to not like Rickie Fowler the golfer or his rocking mustache. But for my wallet, I will continue to fade his scorecard until his swing comes full circle.
You can get Hatton against Fowler at PointsBet, and Finau vs. Fowler at Bet365.
Picks: Hatton -122 vs. Fowler, Finau -105 vs. Fowler
Joel Dahmen -108 vs. Jason Day
One name that continued to rise the leaderboard in Fort Worth was Joel Dahmen. The Bucket Hat Brigade has played Harbour Town just once, a top 20 showing last year.
Dahmen is 15th in strokes gained approach the green through 2020 and finished 10th at Colonial in strokes gained tee-to-green. His accuracy will be paramount in his second attempt to win the Heritage.
RBC HERITAGE PROMO! Win $100 if Rory McIlroy makes just ONE birdie all week
When Jason Day is healthy, he can compete with the best in the world. The Australian has played Harbour Town four times in the past decade, finishing top 30 each time.
But Day currently ranks outside the top 150 in strokes gained approach through the past 18 months of play. The one time PGA Championship winner posted a -3.406 in strokes gained tee-to-green in his two rounds at Colonial.
It can be a crap shoot to bet on or against Jason Day. One thing we can count on is Dahmen continuing his accuracy game after his breakfast stop in Beaufort.
Longshots to Target: Streelman & Glover
One of these golfers loves the RBC Heritage, while one of them may be heating up just in time for another accuracy test. Glover finished tied for 23rd at Colonial, posting 21 total birdies and a ranking of first overall in driving accuracy.
His tee-to-green game was inline with his top 25 ranking since 2019. Before a missed cut last year, Glover had finished top 35 four years straight at the Heritage.
Kevin Streelman was cut at Colonial at even par after two rounds. But he had a fantastic strokes gained tee-to-green number and may have been saving his putter for the Bermuda's at the Heritage. Streelman has a terrific history at this course.
With seven straight cuts made, you can guarantee the search will be on for a Streelman to make the cut before first tee.
While I typically do not bet a ton of outrights and will stick to Top 20, Top 10 and matchups in the Action App, Streelman and Glover will be bet in just about anyway I can get cash down.
