Scottie Scheffler is listed between +300 and +325 to win the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 this week. For some context, no other golfer is listed below +1200, with Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele priced second in odds.
What's the reason for Scheffler's low odds? Well, of course, his consistent winning this year:
"Five players have won the Masters, The Players Championship and the Memorial Tournament in their careers: Scottie Scheffler, Tiger Woods, Fred Couples, Raymond Floyd and Jack Nicklaus.
Scheffler (2024) and Woods (2001) are the only players to win all 3 in the same year."
This is a great nugget from Justin Ray.
So, just how low is +325 odds to win a major? I'm glad you asked.
In the last 40 years of men's golf major championships, only 11 different golfers have been listed below +500 odds to win a major — including Scottie Scheffler, who was +450 to win the PGA Championship earlier this year.
Let's dive into a few facts and figures on Scheffler's odds.
- In the last 40 years of majors, only Tiger Woods has had shorter odds to win any major. Tiger had shorter odds than Scottie's +325 in 30 total majors. Yes, you read that right. He had odds of +300 or shorter in 30 major championships.
- The last time a golfer had odds this low in a major was Tiger Woods back in 2009 for the PGA Championship when he was listed at +180.
2009 was a special year for the Tiger Woods betting history fan club — that was the last time he was listed below +500 odds in all four majors — which he did an absurd seven times (2009, 2007, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000).
- As I mentioned above, Scheffler is listed below +500 odds to win a major for the second time already this season, having already done so at the PGA Championship (+450).
He is just the fourth golfer in the last 40 years to be listed below +500 in multiple majors in the same year: Scottie Scheffler, Tiger Woods, Greg Norman and Seve Ballesteros.
It is worth noting that Tiger did this 10 times in his career. Norman did it twice in this span (1988-89), and so did Ballesteros (1985, 1988).
- To put the entire list of majors into some perspective: In the last 40 years, there have been 60 instances of a golfer listed below +500 to win a major. Tiger represented 65% of those instances (39). The next closest was Greg Norman with six, or 10%.
Here is the list Scheffler looks to climb.
Most Majors Listed Under +500 — Last 40 Years
39, Tiger Woods
6, Greg Norman
4, Seve Ballesteros
2, Scottie Scheffler, Bernhard Langer, Tom Watson
- Now let's talk about what really matters. Winning.
Of those 59 instances where a golfer was listed under +500 to win a major prior to this week, 13 actually won the tournament that week (22%), 20 finished in the top two (34%) and 29 finished in the top five on the leaderboard (49%).
Of the 13 winners, Tiger Woods owns 12 of those wins, with Nick Faldo in 1990 at the Open Championship representing the other victory — another list Scheffler looks to join this week.
Looking specifically at Tiger for fun: He went 12/39 in winning majors when listed below +500 at 31%. He finished among the top two in 18/39 majors (46%) and finished in the top five in 23/39 majors (59%).
When listed below +500 at a major, Tiger Woods was more likely to finish in the top two (18 times) than he was to finish outside the top five (17 times).
Note: All data is via Sports Odds History and GolfOdds via Jeff Sherman.
