Shriners Children’s Open Picks: Expert Bets for J.T. Poston, Adam Schenk & Eric Cole

After a week in Mississippi, the PGA Tour heads to Sin City for the Shriners Children's Open. This is one of my favorite events during the fall season, and there are a lot of appealing plays on the betting board this week. Before we get to the picks, let's take a look at the course and what type of golfers might excel in Las Vegas.

TPC Summerlin is a par-71 that measures 7,255 yards, and by PGA Tour standards, this is one of the shorter courses on the schedule. Add in wide fairways, large greens and little wind, and we have ourselves a recipe for a birdie-fest. Each of the last five winners here have been at least 21-under par, and this course has been one of the 10 easiest courses on Tour every year during that stretch.

On paper, you would think a course with three par-5s and wide fairways would set up well for the bombers, but that hasn't been the case here over the years.

There are a few reasons for this. The first is that if golfers miss the fairway by much, they will find themselves in the desert and at the mercy of the golf gods while hoping for a playable lie. The second is that in order to attack these pins, golfers need to play from the short grass. And finally, the holes are so short that the difference between hitting an approach from 120 yards compared to 105 yards isn't that big of a difference for these golfers.

This doesn't mean that the longer hitters can't or won't play well this week, but know that the driver is neutralized a bit at this course as the majority of strokes will be gained on approach and on the greens.

While we've seen some elite scramblers play well here in the past, I'm not focusing my attention on around the green play. For starters, golfers will be behind the eight ball if they are consistently missing greens, and additionally, I expect the Greens in Regulation Rate to be very high given the absence of wind in the forecast.

Essentially, I'm looking for golfers who keep it in play off the tee, can gain strokes on approach, make a lot of birdies and can putt well on Bentgrass greens. A nice track record playing desert golf doesn't hurt as well.

Shriners Children's Open Outright Picks

J.T. Poston +3000 (BetMGM)

J.T. Poston doesn't have the best course history at TPC Summerlin, but he did finish T20 here last year, and I would argue that he's currently playing the best golf of his career.

He's rattled off seven straight made cuts with four top-seven finishes during that stretch. Even more impressive, he has gained over 17 strokes on approach in his last four starts.

In theory, this should be a great fit for Poston because he tends to play his best on courses that don't require distance off the tee and courses that are easy. He rates out as the second-best golfer in my model this week (behind only Tom Kim), and we shouldn't blink at the chance to bet him at +3000.

Pick: J.T. Poston +3000 Outright

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Adam Schenk +3000 (FanDuel)

Adam Schenk has yet to pick up a win on the PGA Tour, but he has come awfully close a few times this year. He finished runner-up at the Valspar Championship in the spring and has since posted four other top-10 finishes.

It's a pretty simple recipe for Schenk — he gains a ton of strokes on approach and on the greens– and that's exactly the skillset that we are looking for when it comes to TPC Summerlin.

He's played well here in the past, posting four straight top-30 finishes with a third-place finish in 2021.

Pick: Adam Schenk +3300

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Eric Cole +3500 (FanDuel)

Because Eric Cole had a middling finish last week (T35) and missed the cut here last year, he's getting overlooked in the betting market.

However, he's first in the field in Birdie or Better Rate and is one of the best putters on tour. This should-be Rookie of the Year has over 50 mini tour wins, and if you know anything about those events, they are all birdie-fests.

He knows how to keep his foot on the gas and should be more comfortable the next time he finds himself in contention.

Pick: Eric Cole +3500 Outright

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Andrew Putnam +160 for Top 20 (BetMGM | Ties Paid in Full)

Whenever I have a placement bet that I like, BetMGM is the first sportsbook that I check for odds because BetMGM is the one book available to me that doesn't have a dead-heat reduction for their golf bets.

If you are unfamiliar, let me walk you through an example. If Andrew Putnam finishes in a four-way tie for 20th this week, you would only get one-fourth of your payout on books that have the dead heat reduction. On BetMGM, you would get the full payout. Because of this, I'm usually willing to take slightly worse odds.

Action’s BetMGM bonus code also unlocks up to $1,500 in bonus bets for new sign-ups.

As for Putnam, this is a perfect course for him. He's not long off the tee, but he's extremely accurate. He's a top-10 approach player in the field and one of the best putters on the PGA Tour.

He's also been consistent all year and has clearly taken a liking to TPC Summerlin, finishing in the top 20 in three of his last four visits.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week!

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