So much for the afternoon wind being a deterrent to scoring on Thursday.
While over 25 players are still on the course and will need to finish their first round early on Friday, it was Cameron Davis, all the way in the late wave, seizing the top of the leaderboard after firing a robust eight-under total to surpass Taylor Montgomery by two.
Davis' +5.9 shots with his putter nearly outpaced the second-ranked producer (Michael Kim) by a full two shots. We had seen a recent surge with that portion of his game heading into the week over his last 24 rounds, but performances like that are always out of nowhere when you lap the field with such a volatile statistic.
It will be interesting to see if Davis can maintain his momentum on Friday when regression hits, although his +1.56 strokes ball-striking should help with whatever reversal does happen in round two.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Sony Open Round 2 Predictions
Greyson Sigg over Stewart Cink (-115 via FanDuel)
We got the week off to a fast start in round one when we also backed Greyson Sigg in a matchup over David Lipsky. My model found this troubling trend on what might happen to Lipsky in the windier afternoon conditions, something we saw come to fruition with his -2.9 strokes approaching the green.
I always note how my matchups are driven by the opponent over the golfer I am backing. That gives us more of a coincidence than anything that Sigg will be fired up on back-to-back days. However, it doesn't hurt matters whatsoever that my model is grading the 28-year old as one of the top values on the board.
Sigg's 4.01 shots he gained with his ball-striking on Thursday placed him second in the field, and the negative-1.26 shots he lost around the green should be considered nothing more than an aberrational result for a golfer who was projected to gain 0.10 in that area.
Here is my projected leaderboard when giving all players their baseline short-game stats over their actual production:
Sigg's projected score of 4.4 under par placed behind only Taylor Montgomery for the reconstructed leaderboard I ran. We saw my total there eclipse Stewart Cink's output by 4.28 shots, meaning that even though the two men both finished at three-under par, my model believed Sigg should have won the day one battle by 4.28 shots.
I get the course history narrative for Cink after generating nine consecutive made cuts, with nothing worse than a 42nd-place finish. Still, the 50-year-old isn't quite the spring chicken he once was compared to his opponents on Tour. I am always looking for built-in projected value based on situations where the market has moved too far, so I will take 1.15 units to win 1.00 and fade a golfer getting overly boosted because of past form.
Bonus Picks – Four Outright Bets
Here are the four names longer than 50/1 on the slate that I would consider adding an outright ticket on after round one.
Adam Hadwin (+5500 via FanDuel)
Greyson Sigg (+15000 via FanDuel)
Akshay Bhatia (+17500 via PointsBet)
