After a two-event stretch in Hawaii, the PGA TOUR heads to California for The American Express. This is the first pro-am event of the year. There will be 156 professionals and 156 amateurs teeing it up this week. Naturally, pace of play is always a major issue at this event. The good news is that the event is played on three different courses, so they should be able to finish each round before they run out of daylight. The bad news is that we only get Shot Tracker on one of the courses.
With three courses in play, the cut won't be made until after the third round. The three courses are the Pete Dye Stadium Course (host course), the La Quinta Country Club and the Nicklaus Tournament Course. All three courses are Par 72s that measure less than 7,300 yards. They are all extremely easy (usually in the bottom 10 in difficulty on TOUR each year), so there's not a major edge round-to-round. The name of the game this week is patience and birdie-making.
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Key Statistics for The American Express
– Birdie or Better %
– Strokes Gained: Approach
– Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
– Strokes Gained on Easy Courses
– Strokes Gained in California
Outright Bets for The American Express
Wyndham Clark +3000 (DraftKings)While I don't love the recent form or course fit for Clark as much as I do for Sungjae Im or Sam Burns, the number on Clark is more than double that of the other two. Over the past two years, Clark has more wins on TOUR than Im and Burns. I'll take the longer odds given the fact that Clark knows how to win when in contention. In his lone appearance this year, he finished T15 at The Sentry while gaining 3.7 strokes off the tee. His two biggest strengths last season were iron play and putting, so it's encouraging to see him have a strong week off the tee in Hawaii. He has an excellent track record in California and has two top 20s at this event in four starts.
Eric Cole +5500 (FanDuel)
Mark my words — Cole is going to pick up his first PGA TOUR win this season. While the competition is much different, Cole has won 56 times on the Minor League Golf Tour. He knows how to win golf events, he just needs to get it done on the biggest stage. He certainly knows how to get in the mix as he has seven career top-five finishes. He finished T5 last week at the Sony Open where he gained 5.8 strokes on approach and 5.2 strokes putting. He's one of the best in the field in strokes gained per round on easy courses and is 2-for-2 at this event in his career with a T21 finish last season.
Ben Griffin +6000 (bet365)
Much like Cole, 2025 seems like a great year for Griffin to pick up his first PGA TOUR win. He's been playing some great golf over the past six months and has racked up nine top-10 finishes in his short career on TOUR. He played in most of the events during the fall and finished in the top 25 in the majority of them. His T45 finish last week doesn't jump off the page, but he had the lead for most of the first round. A cold putter held him back from a higher finish. He tends to play his best in birdie-fests because he's an elite putter. He's 2-for-2 at this event in his career with a T9 finish last year.
Keith Mitchell +9000 (bet365)
Mitchell is one of the streakiest golfers on TOUR. When he's in good form, he'll be priced at +3000 to win in events like this. Thanks to four straight missed cuts in the fall, he's priced all the way down at +9000. He's a long shot, but I love the odds for a player of his caliber. He made the cut last week at the Sony Open and gained four strokes off the tee and 1.6 strokes on the greens. That's a recipe for success this week, as there are so many par-5s to feast on. Mitchell has an elite track record in California and two top 25s at this event in the past two years.
This would be a great week to hit a winner, as most of the bets are long shots. Good luck!
