Every week during the PGA TOUR season, “The Gimme,” our streaming show on the GolfBet platform, will offer an exclusive prop bet with boosted odds that is available through BetMGM. Here is the breakdown for this week’s Gimme prop.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Daniel Berger to finish top-10 (including ties): +150
The defending champion at Pebble Beach this week, Daniel Berger, owns an exquisite (and ascending) track record here in three career starts. While we usually use “top-10” as an easy round-number cut-off point, it’s more relevant for this prop, considering he finished T-10 in 2015, then T-5 two years ago before claiming the victory.
“I played this event early on, and I took a couple years off. I don't even know why,” he said during a Tuesday press conference. “I just think that I wasn't prepared for the poa annua greens and the longer rounds, and then I decided to come back, and I've been successful here in the three times that I played it, so I think I've gotten better at understanding how to play on these California-style golf courses. That's why I wanted to come back and get off to a good start this year.”
That’s all good news, as is Berger’s floor.
Sure, we know he owns a massive ceiling, since he won last year – and he’s one of the few players who has successfully defended a title over the past half-decade, winning the FedEx St. Jude Invitational in both 2016 and ’17, so there’s some value in betting him to do it again.
For prop plays, though, the floor is just as important as the ceiling, and Berger now owns the PGA TOUR’s longest made-cut streak at 13, dating back to last year’s Masters. During that time, he owns seven top-10 results – a 53.8 percent clip which outclasses the 40 percent probability of a +150 wager.
That, however, doesn’t factor in a major intangible.
During the final round of last week’s Farmers Insurance Open, when he posted a 1-under 71 at Torrey South to finish in a share of 20th place, Berger was in visible pain from a presumed back injury.
He wasn’t asked about it during this week’s press conference, but just the fact that he remains in the field should be enough to quash any suspicions that it’s overly bothering him. And I know: we’ve learned by now to beware the injured golfer, so even if he’s hurting, that doesn’t necessarily mean we should fade him.
All of that said, I’m still staying away from this prop, though it has less to do with Berger’s abilities or injuries than his fellow competitors.
Quite frankly, at an event which has seen players with triple-digit pre-tourney odds win each of the last three even-numbered years, I’m more inclined to play some longshots at a bigger price than even these boosted odds.
With only one top-10 player, three top-20 players and 10 top-50 players in the field, this is a week to find some value further down the board, so I’d rather not spend down for a player I don’t absolutely love.
The play: Don’t bet the prop at +150.
