Here's everything you need to know about The Players Championship first-round leader picks for 2024 — our expert FRL bets for this week's PGA Tour event at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.
With the Arnold Palmer Invitational in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's The Players Championship. The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass hosts once again, which it has done annually since 1982.
TPC Sawgrass is a par-72, 7,275-yard track designed by Pete Dye that presents a strong challenge to the world's best golfers and rewards strong approach players who can finish strong on these Bermudagrass greens.
Find my The Players Championship first-round leader picks for 2024 below.
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The Players Championship First-Round Leader Picks 2024
Tom Hoge +6600 (bet365 | 0.14 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 8:13 a.m. ET
As is always my strategy for targeting first-round leaders, I'm searching for golfers who tee off earlier in the day. The first wave almost always scores better than the second wave, which makes sense considering that the greens only firm up as the round progresses.
The earlier a golfer tees off, the more soft greens he faces that are much more receptive to his shots. The one objection to this general rule of thumb is when there is an expected weather change between the first and second waves, but that will not be the case on Thursday.
That brings us to Tom Hoge, who tees off in the fourth of 24 groups on Thursday. If there is any golfer who can go nuclear in a random round here, it is Hoge because of his boom-or-bust style.
In fact, he currently holds the course record at TPC Sawgrass for a single round when he went 10-under for a 62 in the third round of last year's The Players Championship. Hoge is setting up nicely this week for another strong start considering he currently ranks first on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green this season at +1.227 per round (yes, even ahead of Scottie Scheffler).
I mention this metric because each of the top-four finishers here last season ranked in the top five among the field in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, the only statistic in which such a trend occurred.
Tommy Fleetwood +6600 (BetRivers | 0.11 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 8:24 a.m. ET
Tommy Fleetwood tees off in the group immediately following Hoge on Thursday morning. Fleetwood is someone we should trust far more on a Thursday than on a Sunday, and he profiles well this week.
He has typically demonstrated success at Dye-designed courses that feature Bermudagrass greens, with multiple top-10 finishes across TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town Golf Links and Austin Country Club. Fleetwood's recent inconsistency with his irons is my one concern, but hey, that is why we are catching such a long price on the current No. 12 golfer in the world.
This is a pure value play from my perspective. I am not sure Fleetwood currently possesses the ceiling to win this week, but 66-1 is far too long of a number for him to catch fire in the first round, especially considering his talent level and previous success on Dye-designed courses with Bermudagrass greens.
Here's my full betting card for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks Best Bets podcast:
- Xander Schauffele Outright Winner (+2200 at bet365) – 0.36 Units
- Hideki Matsuyama Outright Winner (+3000 at bet365) – 0.33 Units
- Sam Burns Top Five (+850 at bet365) – 0.3 Units
- Erik van Rooyen Top 10 (+1000 at DraftKings) – 0.27 Units
- Rickie Fowler Top 20 (+450 at bet365) – 0.24 Units
- Grayson Murray Top 30 (+550 at bet365) – 0.20 Units
- Brendon Todd Top 40 (+130 at bet365) – 0.17 Units
- Tom Hoge FRL (+6600 at bet365) – 0.14 Units
- Tommy Fleetwood FRL (+6600 at BetRivers) – 0.11 Units
