The Players Championship One & Done Picks are massive in the One & Done Picks streets as the payout pool is the largest of the entire One & Done season on the PGA Tour.
TPC Sawgrass (Stadium) is a track we see on a regular basis, and there is extensive course history. While the strategy to play decent golf around here is straightforward, the outcomes are extremely volatile. This is due to the various water hazards and tree-lined fairways in Ponte Vedra Beach.
Step one, and the most important step, is to play out of the fairway at a consistent rate. If you find your golfers hacking it out of the rough on every hole, they are getting lapped. If they are missing fairways and not in the rough, then they are probably in the water or trapped behind a tree. The moral of the story is to hit the fairway at TPC Sawgrass.
Let's take a deeper look at golfers who can do that at a high rate and have higher ceilings. Capitalizing on this payout is key for One & Done.
Here are my The Players Championship One and Done Picks for 2024.
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Xander Schauffele +2400
Xander Schauffele does not have the best course history around TPC Sawgrass, which is truly a good thing for us. This will keep his ownership down and give us an easier path to the top with one of the best golfers on Tour.
I mention the course history being fairly meaningless because of how volatile it is around TPC Sawgrass. One poor swing can lead to a double or triple with all of the water and danger around here. We see golfers go from the top 10 to a missed cut year after year around here.
The seven-time PGA Tour winner has been absolutely striping the ball off the tee. He has gained strokes to the field in all but one of his starts in 2024, and they usually have been large gains. Gaining off the tee is a priority around Sawgrass because of the danger that often lurks on both sides of the fairway.
Outside of that, I trust Schauffele to keep the ball in play and lean on his irons and/or putter because either of them can get hot any time. He ranked among the top five in each Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (third) and SG: Putting (fifth) last season on Tour.
I see his floor being around the top 15 this week with a ceiling of winning. He should not be at massive ownership in this field and is a great One & Done selection for The Players Championship.
JT Poston +12500
If you are looking for a deeper pick with upside, JT Poston is your guy. Poston is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour and is ready to break out in 2024. The way to get Poston right is to get ahead of him because he is one of the streakiest golfers on Tour, but once he clicks, he goes scorched earth. If we predict that breakout before the masses, we will be in business.
Poston's recent results have not looked great, but this is an ideal venue for him. He has tied for 22nd here in two of his four total starts, and I would argue this year is his best chance for a top result. He is a great iron player and can get extremely hot with the putter.
Poston's key to success will be finding the fairways. He is a volatile driver most of the time, but he has finished above each tournament's average Driving Accuracy in all eight of his PGA Tour starts in 2024.
Since Sawgrass is shorter, he will not need to hit his hardest ball to try and push it down there. Poston will be able to hit smooth fairway-finders and lean into the stronger parts of his game. This potential One & Done pick is risky but also rewarding as Poston already has four top-11 finishes on Tour this season.
Sepp Straka +17500
Sepp Straka is another massive longshot with real top-five upside. The Georgia Bulldog has multiple wins in his PGA Tour career and nearly won another at TPC Southwind, where he lost to Will Zalatoris in a playoff. That venue, along with his win at PGA National, are both very difficult golf courses played on Bermudagrass, which sound like TPC Sawgrass.
The Georgia Bulldog enjoys putting on Bermuda, but more importantly, he will play out of the fairway. Straka has positive Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in seven straight starts. Outside of that, he has made his last two cuts at TPC Sawgrass, which includes a tie for ninth in 2022.
Nailing a longshot in One & Done is extremely risky, but it can be so rewarding in your One & Done pool. With the volatile nature of TPC Sawgrass, some big names will miss this cut. Don't be scared to take a shot with one of these golfers at longer odds because it can be extremely rewarding.
