Here's everything you need to know about The Sentry on Sunday, Jan. 7 — our expert The Sentry Round 4 Matchup Pick and betting prediction for today.
There is a reason golf outright betting possesses the most volatile output weekly.
I took an aggressive approach to start the year by backing Scottie Scheffler at +650 to win The Sentry. His sub-2/1 price entering round three was where I ideally wanted to be for a wager that marginally overexposed my card before the tournament. However, Scheffler's shift in reverse on Saturday with a third-round 71 moved his odds closer to his initial opening odds from Monday as he is +600 on Sunday morning at bet365.
Despite his Saturday hiccup, Scheffler's driver and irons have been elite this week as he ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained (SG): Off the Tee, fifth in SG: Approach and third in SG: Tee to Green, per Shotlink data.
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Sure, some of the blame could be placed on a putting stroke that regressed and lost 2.13 shots on the greens. I feel like we played this game and gave that answer every week last year. Still, the more significant concern stems from Scheffler's underachieving ball-striking nature, an area that is grading 1.51 shots lower than his baseline projection despite still ranking highly in this field.
Those mistakes are hard to overcome when you add in a sloppy back nine that witnessed him par three of the five most straightforward holes down the stretch Saturday, but like I always say, there are other avenues to consider when trying to find value in golf.
If you live solely in the outright market, you will be in for long weeks, so let's look into another potential market to consider for those trying to get down action during the final round.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
The Sentry Round 4 Matchup Pick
Byeong Hun An -110 over Harris English (bet365)
Don't bet Jason Day +110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick…
Don't bet Jason Day +110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick…
Don't bet Jason Day +110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick…
Welcome into how my brain works when I try to convince myself to avoid betting on Jason Day. I know I am on my own when I say my model thought Day had value over Fitzpatrick on Sunday since all the significant money that has entered the space is backing Fitzpatrick in round four.
If I am being honest, that may have marginally shifted my stance since my model does seem to have a blind spot when it comes to heightening Day's projection every week. At some point, I become a meme that will go nicely next to Day's MC Hammer pants because, honestly, how many times can we lose a wager on the Aussie?
I say most of that as a tongue-in-cheek comment because the true answer will always come down to value and who possesses the most of it, but there is a wager that has just as much long-term equity if we are looking for a way to avoid the same song and dance that I provide every Day.
We briefly discussed before the tournament about how "sharp money" made Byeong Hun An the most significant money-mover when he dropped from 150/1 to 100/1 before a ball was struck on Thursday.
My model understood and supported the shift since the 32-year-old also possessed one of the higher ceiling increases for me when I removed the floor output from everyone in the field. That is a portion of my model that I value since "maximum upside" matters heavily during some of these all-or-nothing sectors.
I don't believe that should come as much into play for most head-to-head wagers since a floor grade generally weighs the most in my sheet when looking for "bust potential." However, my numbers did indicate that a propensity to score only enhances its importance in a birdie shootout.
We see that upside with An continuing his ascension in my sheet as the most significant mover for head-to-head rank. That is a noteworthy return on its own and only further increases because English experienced a lack of movement in that area.
Essentially, if my model isn't properly giving credit to English's production, it believes a lot of the display has been inconsistent in its nature. With extra pressure added to the mix for a Sunday round in contention, I always like to fade the golfers who aren't striking their irons well.
English's 0.80 shots dropped over three days on approach is troubling and was enough for me to grab this at 1.1 units to win 1 because of my 4.2% edge on this bet.
I wouldn't go breaking the bank on two golfers who still grade outside the top 15 for me in overall rank in this field, but I will take the potential of An over the inconsistent output this week from English.
