We are officially 36 holes through the first event of 2024, with world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler leading the way at 16-under par. It has been an impressive performance from the American over the opening two days when we dive into him gaining a minimum of 0.57 shots to the field in all four critical areas.
I talked a lot pre-tournament about how a neutral putter might be good enough for the 27-year old to start the year with a victory. That sentiment remains in place, but it is noteworthy that Scheffler hasn't been quite the elite version of himself tee-to-green as we have come to expect weekly. My model has him 1.4 shots below his baseline expectation over the opening two rounds, a viewpoint that is a double-edged sword since any return to normalcy for his driver and irons could turn The Sentry into a runaway victory if the putter remains hot.
I will stay put in the outright market heading into round three and hope my +650 ticket on Scheffler that I grabbed pre-event increases its projected value. We should have a better idea of the optimal path after another 18 holes, but let's instead look for one buy and one sell that we can take advantage of during the weekend when plunging into the metrics. Books have been slow to post their matchups for round three, but it doesn't mean we can't get ahead of things since all books offer varying head-to-head options for us to consider.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Here are my Sentry Tournament of Champions weekend bets.
Weekend Buy
Max Homa
What you are looking at in the image above (it always helps to simplify the process) is where every golfer in the field should be on the leaderboard after two days if you took their baseline short game and combined it with the actual ball striking. There is a lot more that goes into the equation than just that since pre-tournament grades and ranks will still matter, but we get this spot with Homa, where my model believes he should be in first place at 14.51 under par when considering how well he is striking the ball so far this week.
That expectation is good enough to skyrocket him up my sheet into a projected fourth-place output when looking into his head-to-head grade, which will likely make him a value in most head-to-head matchups you can find over the final two rounds. That doesn't suggest I will be backing him blindly in every spot. However, it does imply Homa is a DFS value that can easily overcome his -4.51 shot downswing in projected performance on and around the greens.
Weekend Sell
Viktor Hovland
Giving an obvious sell option to play things safe is extremely easy. What would it hurt for me to jump into this article and say Akshay Bhatia isn't going to win?
While I will get some things egregiously wrong in 2024 (perhaps here) since I am always looking for a contrarian route that can make me money, I have never understood the obvious answers that do very little to help DFS users and bettors think critically. Maybe a matchup against Bhatia will inevitably come to fruition as value, but without anything sticking out currently in the head-to-head market for us to discuss, let's talk about why my model has continued to find a lack of intrigue behind the hottest player to end 2023.
I was able to connect on a head-to-head matchup in round two when I grabbed Scottie Scheffler -120 over Viktor Hovland. It was a spot where my model thought the 20-point movement between Thursday and Friday didn't make sense, significantly when my model heightened the edge on a play that saw Scheffler come up short in round one.
I don't believe we are going to get the same mistake on Saturday from books since early indications have shown a shift back into that -140 zone. Still, it is hard to be overly optimistic about Hovland's trajectory when he has overachieved his baseline projection on the leaderboard by 32 spots based on how he is striking the ball.
Here are all the players in the field who have overachieved their ball-striking by at least eight spots on the leaderboard over two rounds.
Sure, there is a chance Hovland can keep up his scorching pace, but his 47th-place grade for strokes gained approach worries me since his inability with his short game is always right around the corner. If he beats me, he beats me. But I will be a seller in all markets at these prices.
