Betting Odds, Props and Picks for Tiger & Peyton vs. Phil & Brady Champions for Charity Match II

Tiger-Phil II Odds & Picks: Tiger Woods & Peyton Manning vs. Phil Mickelson & Tom Brady

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So, I’ve changed my mind a little.

Entering this week, I assumed that the quarterbacks would have a big impact on the final result of this week’s Champions for Charity match, considering the format – best-ball on the front-nine with each QB getting three strokes and modified alternate shot on the back-nine – and I assumed that the retired player with more time on his hands and a lower handicap would be the better option.

Well, I still believe Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will each be the determining factor, but after speaking with a handful of PGA Tour pros who have played with each of them – including Luke Donald, who joined us on the Action Network Podcast this week – I’m now led to believe that it’s the active QB who might own the better golf game.

From everything I’ve heard, Brady hits it longer than Manning and owns a better short game, all of which has me making an outright bet and several props that give the edge to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signal-caller – oh, and his partner, Phil Mickelson.

Let’s get into my favorite plays for this Sunday’s match.

All odds via Westgate SuperBookUSA

Phil Mickelson/Tom Brady to win the match

Odds: +170 ($10 bet would win $17)

I mentioned my Brady-related reasons above. As for Mickelson, I expect him to be highly motivated to beat Tiger Woods in one of these things yet again, just as he was more motivated in their head-to-head money game 18 months ago. Word is, Lefty has been playing 36 holes a day, getting his game sharp for this one.

There’s been no leak in regard to Tiger – how much he’s playing; how well he’s playing; how healthy he is – but it’s difficult to imagine he’s prepping on the same level as Mickelson. Then there’s the fact that any match of this type is a toss-up – and the smart move is to take the plus-money in any crapshoot situation. Granted, that strategy burned us in the end last week, but it will still keep us ahead more often than not.

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Tee shots in the fairway on Hole 1

• Woods odds: Yes -200 ($20 bet would net $10)
• Mickelson odds: Yes -175 ($17.50 bet would net $10)
• Manning odds: Yes +100 ($10 bet would net $10)
• Brady odds: Yes +115 ($10 bet would net $11.50)

Going back to the well here, since I loved these bets last week, too. In that one, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler each hit the fairway, while Matthew Wolff either missed or was ruled “inconclusive,” depending on your book.

In a course preview of Medalist GC that he wrote for The Action Network, PGA Tour veteran Jamie Lovemark said of the first hole: “[This is a] dead straight par-4 that requires a fairway wood or long-iron off the tee.” If I could only play one of these, I want the one with the most value, as Donald suggested that Manning’s driving accuracy is better than we might expect. Really, though, I’d love to bundle all four of these into a parlay, getting a good number to see the first four shots in the short stuff.

Mickelson/Brady to lead after 9 holes

Odds: +130

As stated above, the front-nine is best-ball, with Brady and Manning each getting a stroke on a par-3, a par-4 and a par-5. Throw in the fact that Mickelson and Woods will reportedly be playing with one club on the fifth hole and the QBs are going to have more of an impact than most people probably realize.

Again, when that’s the case, we’ve been led to believe that Manning is the better player based solely on his index, but I’d rather rely on eyewitness accounts, which hint at Brady in this scenario.

Neither team will go 3-up

Odds: +250 ($10 bet would win $25)

I can’t state this strongly enough: I lovvvvve this prop. As I wrote earlier this week, this match is for bragging rights and will generate a lot of money in COVID-19 charitable relief. More than anything, though, this is a TV show.

I don’t think either team will tank whatsoever, but I do think everyone involved will be aware that a match ending after the 13th hole won’t exactly quench sports fans’ thirst for some Sunday afternoon competition. While I do like Mickelson/Brady to win, I think this one will remain close throughout.

There will be extra holes

Odds: +400 ($10 bet would win $40)

Another one that I absolutely love at such a big number. In each of the previous two matches – Tiger/Phil in Nov. of 2018 and the TaylorMade Driving Relief skins game last week – extra holes were needed to decide the result. It wouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone if this match ends up the same way – and at 4/1, this feels like a solid plus-money play.

More Tiger vs. Phil II Coverage

• Best Tiger vs. Phil II Promotions and Offers
• Jamie Lovemark's Hole-by-Hole Breakdown of Medalist
• How Good Are Peyton Manning and Tom Brady at Golf?
• Sobel: What the Rules and Format Mean for Brady and Manning
• Updated Odds and Format for Champions for Charity
• Action Network Podcast: Tiger vs. Phil II Preview