It's not clear if Tiger Woods is or isn't going to play in the Masters next week, but the betting market around golf's most popular player is very active.
Perhaps the most interesting action is on whether Woods will play or not. A market like that is not usually available at legal sportsbooks in the United States. If a person plays, they play and the market is live. If they don't, the money is refunded.
But several states, including Colorado and Nevada, approved the market after being petitioned by sportsbooks.
Earlier this week, Circa Sports asked Nevada if they could offer such a market.
"Someone booked: 'Will Tom Brady throw a pass in 2021 for the Bucs?' last year, so I guess there was precedent," said Circa bookmaker Matt Metcalf.
Metcalf originally opened the market at pick, but after sharper action started to come in on yes (that Woods would play), the line was moved to -240 'Yes' and +195 'No.'
Metcalf then said he took some heat on Twitter.
"I don't think most people understand the relation of juice to the bookmakers uncertainty regarding a number because some of the unscrupulous books abuse the high juice so much," Metcalf said. "This prop deserved a 30-cent split on the opener."
At 1:30 p.m. ET, Metcalf moved Yes to -1000 after someone who he considers sharp hit the max $2,000 bet on Woods to play.
It stayed there until around 3 p.m. ET, which brought the yes down to -690.
It's a different story at MaximBet in Colorado, where a Woods 'Yes' to playing is -400 and a No is +250. There, 95 percent of the money is on 'No.'
"I love speculative markets that may or may not have information on them," Metcalf said. "I can't see going more than a $2,000 limit because if the info comes out and we don't get to it first, we will probably take 20 more bets. I told the guys at my book to try not to lose more than $50,000."
Woods is now the top liability to win the tournament at most books.
At BetMGM, he opened at 33/1 and moved to 66/1 to win the tournament on Tuesday before going to 50/1 on Wednesday. The highest number of bets of any golfer — 5.6 percent — have been placed on Tiger. It's the same at PointsBet, where Woods has 8.5 percent of the bets, more than any other golfer.
If Woods does play, how effective will he be? Well, bettors at BetMGM have hit the prop enough that the odds on Tiger to make the cut shortened from +175 to +165.
