You can tune in to any show or article this week and hear the basic concepts of how hitting greens in regulation and gaining around the green are essential, but my model believed that aggression was the ultimate differentiator in locating high-end success at TPC San Antonio.
I ran three separate categories in my sheet that looked into Aggression Rate, Aggression Birdie or Better %, and Par-5 Aggression. I then took those totals and found who the best overall aggressors were projected to be since these par-5 holes are long and demand risk to get the most out of your rounds.
Corey Conners won twice by ranking in the top 10 of this field in all three areas. Jordan Spieth gave a similar answer during his win, placing number one in Birdie or Better Aggression.
You don't always get this viewpoint when handicapping a board, so let's see how my model compared to the market movers this week.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Valero Texas Open Data-Driven Picks
Every Monday, I take an aggregated total from a handful of books I respect and form a median outright price. None of that suggests you wouldn't be able to find better prices if you shopped around, but that is a total I use to compare against a golfer's outright odds movements.
Those returns indicate where the square versus sharp money has entered the market and shows potential DFS value for those looking to round out their player pool. Let's dive into some of the shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets I discussed on the Links + Locks Valero Texas Open Betting Preview podcast.
Valero Texas Open Biggest Market Movers
We do this every week when trying to find sharp versus square movement. More often than not, the activity from the public ends up in a direction that falters for all bettors placing wagers on those golfers to win the event.
My answer here doesn't derive thoughts from within my model. I would have a stronger or weaker stance for some of these players than others, but most of the action here equated to sharp money shifting these totals.
Outside of Nate Lashley and Brendon Todd, it does seem like most of the "sharp" movement this week has occurred with golfers who likely are better placement options than names to be targeting in futures markets.
I am being generous with that answer since my model didn't have much love for anyone outside of Matti Schmid, Jacob Bridgeman and K.H. Lee from that group, but it is a board where the movement around Lashley and Todd makes sense.
Lashley was my largest projected mover when comparing ceiling performance versus floor outcome. His back-to-back top-25 finishes at THE PLAYERS Championship and Houston Open merged well with his top-10 ranking for Weighted Strokes Gained: Total and past production at longer courses.
That is the kind of profile my model loved attacking for a golfer who started the week at 200-1.
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Valero Texas Open Worst Current Values
We have seen Thorbjorn Olesen, Ryan Fox, Lee Hodges, Cameron Champ and Ryan Palmer make this list quite frequently over the past few weeks.
Valero Texas Open Outright Picks
I am much higher than the market on Rory McIlroy. It doesn't mean he is going to win, but I ended up being more aggressive than what was probably proper when diving into the overall quality grades I did have for the Northern Irishman. When you add that factor to books generating a ton of hold percentage in the market to account for this questionable week of expectations, you get a tournament with some overall flaws from a value perspective.
With all that being said, I started my card with Matthew Fitzpatrick at 28-1. That is a number that has drifted to 30-1 at a handful of shops.
Fitzpatrick's ability to aggressively attack these long par-5s was pronounced in my sheet, ranking first in this field for Overall Aggression and Weighted Par-5 Scoring. Those two categories will give him the upside to score on holes that aren't guaranteed birdies, and he continued that outlook by ranking as a top-10 Weighted Scrambler in this field.
I added Alex Noren at 33-1, and he is available now at 35-1. Noren ranked fifth in my model for Scrambling, eighth for Aggression and carried the second-safest grade in the event because of his recent form and one-off course-history result.
We are going to need better upside than he has shown in the past to warrant this 33-1 price, but 12 consecutive made cuts and three top-20 finishes in a row will tell a nice story for a golfer who perfectly fits TPC San Antonio.
I also added Tommy Fleetwood at 33-1, and he has drifted to 37-1 at some shops. One of the most intriguing things I found this week was how a golfer like Fleetwood was more aggressive than you may think for someone still looking for his first PGA Tour title.
His lack of ability to produce in those moments has been his biggest downfall, but it hasn't been for a lack of effort.
Maybe a tournament like the Valero Texas Open can finally get the most out of him to produce when he takes those chances.
I closed my card with Nate Lashley at 200-1. As mentioned above, Lashley was the most significant disparity I encountered this week when comparing ceiling versus floor performances. Sites were aware of that factor by skewing his placement marks inside the top 10 or 20 of their boards, but a book like FanDuel overcorrected by initially placing Lashley at +225 to land a top 40.
There is no guarantee he will put the pieces together in Texas, but I am willing to bet on a golfer excelling in those long-term metrics after gaining 13.3 shots from Tee t0 Green over his last two tournaments.
My Model's Top Projected Win Equity Choices
- Rory McIlroy
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Tommy Fleetwood
Best Values To Consider At New Price (Not In Order Of Perceived Edge)
Unlike some events, there are still a plethora of ways to become invested in this outright board.
Roberto Arguello eloquently highlighted why he was intrigued by names like Keith Mitchell and Erik Van Rooyen on this week's Links + Locks podcast. Their drift has 100% made them more appealing.
