The Masters is only a week away, but we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves. We have the Valero Texas Open on the schedule this week, and this is an event that has been dominated by mid-range and long-shot winners. In fact, six of the last 12 winners have been at least +10000 in the outright market. That's music to the ears of golf bettors, as everyone loves to chase the golfers downs the odds board.
TPC San Antonio is a par-72 that measures 7,438 yards. It features four par-fives, but they are some of the toughest on the PGA Tour. The longer hitters might be able to reach them in two, but a large portion of the field will be forced to play a couple of them as three-shot holes.
In terms of difficulty, this course has averaged out to be the 15th toughest on the PGA Tour over the last five years. A lot of that depends on the wind, and we are expecting a lot of it on Thursday and Friday.
The course isn't too narrow off the tee, and the rough is very playable, but golfers can't stray too far off the beaten path. There are hazard areas that can create some really big numbers (see Kevin Na's infamous 16 at this course).
The greens are average in size and feature Bermudagrass but are tough to hit on average. Golfers will need to be on point with their ball striking or be very good around the green this week. Ultimately, there's not a strong course fit here, as you can contend in a number of ways.
That's enough about the course; let's get into the picks.
Valero Texas Open Outright Bets
Rickie Fowler +2000 (FanDuel)
There have been a lot of jokes recently that sports are scripted, and if Fowler wins this week to punch his ticket to the Masters, maybe there is something to it.
Aside from the motivation to get back to Augusta, this is the best Fowler has played in the last few years. He has gained at least two strokes on approach in seven of his last nine starts and has gained at least three strokes putting in four of his last five starts. That's a lethal combination at any course, and it's worth noting that he has two top 20s at TPC San Antonio in three appearances.
Pick: Rickie Fowler +2000 |
Cameron Davis +5000 (DraftKings)
We finally found out why Sam Burns was struggling so much off the tee. His driver didn't pass the test at Riviera, and he didn't find another one that he liked until right before the Valspar. He finished in the top 10 there and then won the match play last week.
I'm hoping we see something similar from Davis. He was sick to start the year and talked about how much it impacted his play. He says he's back to 100%, and he just finished in the top 10 at THE PLAYERS. He's the best in the field at par-five scoring over the last 12 months, so I'm taking the bait at +5000.
Pick: Cameron Davis +5000 |
Nick Taylor +5000 (FanDuel)
Taylor has quietly been playing some nice golf this season. He missed a couple of cuts during the Florida swing, but that happens to a lot of golfers. He bounced back with a nice finish at the Valspar (more of a Carolina-style course) and nearly made it out of his group at the match play.
He doesn't have a weakness in his game and has made four of six cuts at TPC San Antonio in his career.
Pick: Nick Taylor +5000 |
Ben Martin +9000 (half-unit DraftKings)
Martin is my first longshot bet of the week. He has always had a good short game and is now flashing some upside with his ball striking. He has gained at least 1.9 strokes ball striking in four straight events and likely did it last week as well, but we don't have ShotLink data from the Corales Puntacana Championship. He's always been at his best on Bermuda greens, so he could make some serious noise if the ball striking continues.
Patton Kizzire +10000 (half-unit FanDuel)
Kizzire is one of the toughest golfers to predict, but he tends to pop for a few weeks at a time. He finished T10 at the Valspar the last time we saw him, and he has an excellent track record in Texas, including a T9 finish here in 2021. He also can get red-hot with his irons and on the greens, so he's worth a sprinkle at +10000.
Good luck this week!
Pick: Patton Kizzire +10000 |
