The PGA Tour heads to San Antonio, Texas this week following the Texas Children's Houston Open. Find Valero Texas Open Predictions for TPC San Antonio below.
It was a bittersweet week at the Texas Children's Houston Open. I added Stephan Jaeger to my outright card after this article was posted but obviously can't give myself credit for the win for our $1,000 bankroll challenge.
However, we did manage to cash the Aaron Rai top-20 bet at +200, so we brought back $60 of the $100 in play. If we can manage to get back above the starting point by the end of the year, I will be doing a giveaway for the loyal readers of this article.
This week's Valero Texas Open will serve as a warm-up event for many in the field, with the Masters looming next week. However, for golfers who aren't already qualified next week, the only way into the Masters is to win this event.
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) is a par-72 that measures 7,438 yards and features narrow fairways with penal rough. If golfers stray too far off the tee, they can really get into some trouble (just ask Kevin Na, who carded a 16 here on the ninth hole in 2011). This is one of those courses where if golfers drive the ball well, they will put themselves in scoring positions. While distance is always an advantage, this week is more about total driving than pure power.
The greens here are average in size (6,400 square feet) and feature Poa trivialis overseed. The greens are difficult to hit in regulation (61% in 2023) and feature plenty of undulations. Hitting the right tier of the green will go a long way when it comes to making birdies. With so many greens being missed by the field, a tidy short game will really come in handy. While I wouldn't go as far as calling this an extremely tough course, this is routinely one of the 15 most difficult courses on Tour.
Similar to last week, I'm looking for strong ball-strikers who don't bleed away strokes around the green. If I am going to make one concession when it comes to statistics, I would rather target a poor putter than target a golfer with a weakness in any other part of his game. Course history here has been very predictive over the years, which means golfers that have played well here in the past tend to play well here in the future.
Let's try to build that bankroll heading into the Masters. I decided to get a little frisky with the bets this week as I made sure all of the odds were big enough that if any of the bets hit, we'll end up having a winning week.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: -$40
- Current bankroll: $576
Valero Texas Open Predictions
Valero Texas Open Outright Predictions
Byeong Hun An to Win +4300 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $860
Benny An has been a popular visitor on my betting cards this season, and that should continue until he finally crosses the finish line or his odds shift drastically. He had a great chance at the Sony Open in Hawaii but fell just short in a playoff against Grayson Murray.
In his last 13 events on Tour, he has four top-four finishes and a tie for eighth. As long as he keeps putting himself in contention, it's only a matter of time before the breaks go his way on a Sunday.
He's a perfect fit for TPC San Antonio because he's an excellent ball-striker and excels around the green. He's not known for his putting but has actually gained at least two strokes putting in five of his last 12 starts with ShotLink data. He's played this event three times in the last four years and has two top-10 finishes.
Russell Henley to Win +5500 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $1100
Russell Henley is always a model favorite because he's one of the best iron players on the PGA Tour. He's a great fit for this course in particular because he's very accurate off the tee and excellent around the green. His tee-to-green prowess has never been in question, but very few might realize how strong he has been on the greens recently. In his last three starts, he has gained over 13 strokes putting.
While he has only played this event twice in his career, he has an excellent track record in Texas as he is 10th best in this field over the last three years.
Aaron Rai to Win +7000 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to pay $1,400
Aaron Rai was the easiest click on the board this week. By the time Thursday morning rolls around, there's no chance this +7000 number will still be available. If you plan to bet Rai, I recommend doing it as soon as possible.
For whatever reason, he loves playing golf in the Lone Star State. He has an excellent track record at the Houston Open and added another strong finish to his resume there last week with a tie for seventh. He has now gained at least five strokes ball-striking in three of his last four starts.
In two appearances at TPC San Antonio, he's finished in the top 30 both times. He presents a perfect trio of good course fit, good form and good course history.
Valero Texas Open Placement Predictions
Lucas Glover Top 10 +700 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $160
Lucas Glover could end up making my outright card as well, but for this article, I'm betting him to finish in the top 10. He's always been known as an elite ball-striker, and he remains in good form there this year. He has gained strokes ball-striking in six straight starts (mostly with his irons).
However, what really stands out to me is that he has gained strokes around the green in seven of his last eight starts. As noted in the course preview, everyone is going to be missing greens this week. The putter is always a wildcard, but he showed during the fall and last summer that he's capable of having spike weeks with the flatstick.
Doug Ghim Top 10 +800 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to pay $180
Doug Ghim hasn't been great in Texas throughout his career and is coming off of two underwhelming performances in a row. However, the Texas Longhorn had lower outright odds at THE PLAYERS Championship. This field is significantly worse than that one, and I would argue that this course actually sets up a little better for his game.
He's accurate off the tee, he's an elite iron player, and he's underrated around the green. The putter is always a question mark, but he has been better on the greens in 2024 than he was in 2023. I love the odds on him to finish in the top 10 this week.
Good luck, and we'll see you back here for the Masters preview!
