The PGA Tour heads to Palm Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship, and our experts have their Best Bets & Expert PGA Tour Picks ready.
Golf betting experts Spencer Aguiar, Nick Bretwisch and Matt Gannon have picks for the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort as the PGA Tour makes its fourth and final stop of the Florida Swing at the Snake Pit.
Here's everything you need to know about Valspar Championship Best Bets at the PGA Tour's 12th event of 2024.
Valspar Championship Best Bets 2024: Expert PGA Tour Picks
Spencer Aguiar: Justin Lower Top 40 +240 (bet365)
There is a matchup bet I like this week!
Spoiler alert: It will be discussed at the beginning of this week's Links + Locks Valspar Championship Betting Preview episode, but let's instead go a different route for this article to spread the wealth on some additional plays to consider.
My model graded Justin Lower as the best value in the placement market because of his 15th-place grade for Weighted Proximity outside of 150+ yards, which helped to push his Weighted Strokes Gained: Total return to 13th overall.
Like all longshot wagers, some red flags are looming that will shrink his profile, but consider Lower a value grab who can excel in the critical areas at Copperhead to find a safer floor than the market is projecting at this +240 price. I had the proper math here at +170.
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Nick Bretwisch: Jacob Bridgeman Top 40 +260 (bet365)
Jacob Bridgeman is someone I’ve been keeping my eye on for the early part of this 2024 PGA Tour season, and this is finally a week where I found a price/market/course this week at the Snake Pit that all seemed to grade in the positive direction for me.
He’s not going to wow anyone with his swing and ball speeds, but he should be in a perfect spot to use his accuracy to his advantage and hit a lot of greens in regulation. He’s been one of the better scramblers on Tour this season, which is impressive for a rookie, and I have this priced closer to +190.
Matt Gannon: Fred Biondi Top 40 +490 (FanDuel)
Fred Biondi is a Korn Ferry Tour rookie who is yet make a name for himself on the PGA Tour. Just last year, Biondi won the inidividual NCAA National Championship and helped lead his Florida Gators to the team championship. It is clear that this kid can play, and he is surely used to Florida golf.
Biondi missed his first two cuts on the PGA Tour but recently finished T31 in Puerto Rico two weeks ago. I think it is a matter of time before he really gets his name in the mix, so finishing in the top 40 should not be too much to ask for this week at Copperhead.
Besides his recent solid result in Puerto Rico, he has made 10+ Korn Ferry Starts in late 2023 and early 2024 and has some decent finishes there. Going back to late 2023, Biondi has top-40 results in three of his last five PGA Tour starts (T13 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, T23 at The RSM Classic & T31 at the Puerto Rico Open).
The tougher conditions should benefit Biondi’s style of golf. Nearly 5-1 on a top 40 is a no-brainer given his immense talent.
Valspar Championship Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Spencer Aguiar: Sungjae Im +2700
- Nick Bretwisch: Cameron Young +3000
- Matt Gannon: Justin Thomas +1500
Best Long Shot
- Aguiar: Davis Thompson 110-1
- Bretwisch: Akshay Bhatia 100-1
- Gannon: Nick Gabrelcik 450-1
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Biggest Bust
- Aguiar: Sam Ryder 100-1
- Bretwisch: Eric Cole +5500
- Gannon: Doug Ghim +5000
Contrarian Player To Target
- Aguiar: Sungjae Im +2700
- Bretwisch: Tony Finau +3000
- Gannon: Cameron Young +3000
Trend That Guides Your Valspar Championship Betting Strategy
Aguiar: I do think most people look at the scorecard yardage of 7,340 yards at Copperhead and see a relatively straightforward layout that does demand tee-to-green acumen at its core. Still, many of the extreme factors of the course are only shown with deeper research since forced layups and added long-iron distance are heightened because the driver will be taken out of the hands of everyone in the field.
This is one of the reasons over 67% of shots occur from 150+ yards. We also get this compact off-the-tee return in general, with 24-yard wide fairways and three-inch thick rough that will convolute this process further.
Gannon: Like the entirety of the Florida Swing, Copperhead features a very stern tee-to-green test here. Playing out of the fairway will be a must if golfers want to hold these smaller greens. At the end of the day, players are going to miss fairways and greens, so being able to scramble is key.
Anytime scores do not reach -15, it is a tough test, and I am expecting more of the same this year. Like last week, golfers need to have their entire bag working. Some courses on Tour allow players to get away with a sole glaring weakness in their game, but if that is the case at Innisbrook, golfers will get lapped.
