I always find Copperhead to be interesting from a data perspective because we have gotten these correlated answers for success at the very top when looking into Sam Burns and Paul Casey going back-to-back over the past five years. Yet, the actual returns past that answer have told a completely different story regarding the predictive nature of the course since it consistently ranks near the bottom of all venues for rollover predictability.
That could be due to the different iterations of the contest we have had over the years. There is a significant difference between how the venue plays at its most accessible and its most complex versions.
It is going to be hard to ignore the 74 bunkers and nine holes that feature some semblance of water if winds hit the area as projected in the current forecast, but this is a problematic venue that rewards a Strokes Gained: Total acumen and hurts anyone who is struggling with whatever portion of their game isn't clicking.
Yes, that means good golfers will play well, but it really comes down to any of the recalculations from within those Strokes Gained areas for how I will differentiate my process. We can always get unique in that fashion. Handicapping an event doesn't always need to be so convoluted.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Valspar Championship Data-Driven Picks
Every Monday, I take an aggregated total from a handful of books I respect and form a median outright price. None of that suggests you wouldn't be able to find better prices if you shopped around, but that is a total I use to compare against a golfer's outright odds movements.
Those returns indicate where the square versus sharp money has entered the market and shows potential DFS value for those looking to round out their player pool. Let's dive into some of the shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets I discussed on the Links + Locks Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview podcast.
2024 Valspar Championship Biggest Market Movers
We do this every week when trying to find sharp versus square movement. More often than not, the activity from the public ends up in a direction that falters for all bettors placing wagers on those golfers to win the event.
My answer here doesn't derive thoughts from within my model. I would have a stronger or weaker stance for some of these players than others, but most of the action here equated to sharp money shifting these totals.
The sharpest movers from the list were Sepp Straka, Brian Harman, Doug Ghim, Xander Schauffele, Lucas Glover, Adam Schenk, Aaron Rai and Carson Young.
My model does seem like it needs to be more connected to the market on Straka's potential after he gained 8.4 strokes Tee-To-Green at THE PLAYERS Championship. I discussed during that event (and even luckily won a wager against him in a matchup) about how Straka wasn't the ideal course fit in my model for safety at TPC Sawgrass.
While this is not the exact answer I gave last week when talking about Brian Harman doing the same song and dance from overachieving at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then getting to take on a course that inevitably fit his game better, Straka did prove enough at THE PLAYERS to show he will have genuine upside at a Copperhead course that will accentuate some of his strengths.
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Speaking of Harman, I thought he was one of the best bets on the board when a few shops opened him up at 35-1 before realizing their mistake. The data is trending for the American in all critical areas of what he will need this week to find high-end success, and you could probably make a strong argument that he should have opened as the third-favorite on this board.
We were never going to get that with Burns's course history or Justin Thomas's bounce-back potential, but Harman started the week too inflated on the odds board.
The rest of these conversations are pretty standard. Carson Young and Schenk were some of the better placement targets to consider because of their excellent upside trajectory in my sheet. We will talk more about Ghim and Rai in a second. Schauffele is also the projected favorite for a reason.
Valspar Championship Worst Current Values
This factor was a big reason for why I targeted Davis Thompson -110 over Webb Simpson in a matchup.
Valspar Championship Outright Picks
There has been a ton of movement over the past 24 hours to push many of these lines into a different territory than they were on Monday when I initially recommended them in the space. Some prices are better when you look into Sungjae Im going from 27-1 to 30-1. A few are worse, such as Adam Hadwin and Doug Ghim, who are getting into that fringe range of whether they still have value at their new price.
We can discuss what I had proper on everyone and what the best way to deploy them now would be from an edge standpoint, but I started my card with Sungjae Im 27-1.
It doesn't surprise me that Im's outright odds have reached 30-1. It was one of the situations I noted in the Early Outright Bets article we do here at Action Network about how bettors wouldn't want to back Im after his slow start to the year.
I get the concerns about how he had lost, on average, 1.38 strokes from Tee to Green in his previous five starts before THE PLAYERS and Arnold Palmer Invitational, but the numbers have quietly turned around for him after gaining a total of 9.6 strokes in that area over the past two weeks.
Im's finishes of 31st and 18th won't tell the complete story because his putter has stunted the results. However, the South Korean was one of the significant climbers for me in my sheet when comparing his baseline putting to his anticipated totals when faced with green complexes similar to what he draws here at Copperhead.
I am going to combine Aaron Rai, Doug Ghim and Adam Hadwin into one section since each golfer is no longer priced how he was on Monday.
| Outright | Recommended Odds | New Odds | Proper Odds |
| Doug Ghim | 55 | 45 | 43 |
| Aaron Rai | 60 | 55 | 52 |
| Adam Hadwin | 60 | 40 | 45 |
Hadwin is technically the only one who no longer has value at his current price, but I can get him into the 30s when I included nothing but Weighted Upside and ignored some of the floor outputs.
That safety factor being included is essential since it helps to generate more of a baseline expectation when pricing out this market, but there is a REAL reason bettors have been willing to take a shot on his top-10 marks for Weighted Upside and Weighted Scoring.
Last but not least, I am willing to take a shot at Davis Thompson's potential at 100-1 (or longer) for the same reasons we discussed with Hadwin.
Luckily, it is a much cheaper investment risk since Thompson has climbed from 100-1 to higher than that when you shop around, but there are reasons to believe a club-down course helps the American in the same capacity as names like Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young and Cameron Davis.
We always think of those golfers as bombers who excel with their distance, but the ball-striking seems to play better in spots like Copperhead this week.
My Model's Top Projected Win Equity Choices
- Xander Schauffele
- Sungjae Im
- Brian Harman
Best Values To Consider At New Price (Not In Order Of Perceived Edge)
All the top-end value is gone. If I were to become invested at this moment, I would be looking to add some deeper wagers down this board and look to become invested with the high-end options after the tournament starts on Thursday.
